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Why the legitimacy of what could appear a perverse general election outcome cannot be questioned There’s lots of talk at the moment about the electoral “system being bust” and “no longer fit for purpose”. What is being pointed to are possible disparities between national aggregate vote shares and the total of MPs each party gets. Clearly in what is now a four party structure it is very likely that many seats will be won with the victor securing fewer than…

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conservative @KellyTolhurst appeals to greens/lab/libs: "if you don't want a UKIP MP on Friday, I hope you can support me" #tactical #RSVote — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) November 18, 2014 Will by election voters want to stop UKIP or give Cameron a bloody nose? After a campaign that seems to have been going on forever we are now into the final day of the Rochester and Strood by-election effort. The polls and PBers in the prediction competition all go for UKIP…

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New Opinium poll has CON in lead with the LDs down 4 to 5% Con 34 (+5), Lab 33 (+1) LD 5 (-4) UKIP 18 (-1) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 18, 2014 The above are voting intention details from the Opinium poll that featured on the previous thread. It is not part of the the Observer series and wasn’t intended for publication. Whatever at this stage so close to the election and only a couple of days away from…

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Queen Edith’s on Cambridge (Lab Defence) Result: Liberal Democrats 933 (36% +1%), Labour 790 (31% -9%), Conservatives 614 (24% +5%), Green 222 (9% +3%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour with a majority of 143 (5%) on a swing of 5% from Labour to Liberal Democrat Brent (Con Defence) and Littlebrook (Lab Defence) on Dartford Brent Result: Conservatives 579 (45%), Labour 402 (31%), UKIP 316 (24%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 177 (14%) Littlebrook Result: Labour 358 (47%), UKIP 220…

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Queen Edith’s on Cambridge (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2014): Labour 25, Liberal Democrats 14, Independents 2, Conservative 1 (Labour majority of 8) Result of last election in ward (2012): Labour 1,084 (40%), Liberal Democrats 963 (35%), Conservatives 513 (19%), Green 172 (6%) Candidates duly nominated: Rahima Ahammed (Lab), Andrew Bower (Con), Joel Chalfen (Green), Viki Sanders (Lib Dem) Brent (Con Defence) and Littlebrook (Lab Defence) on Dartford Result of last election to council (2011): Conservatives 31,…

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The Ipsos-MORI monthly poll has the worst figures for LAB of any since 2010 pic.twitter.com/JkrwKdTOhf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2014 EdM's net Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings 8% worse than Nick Clegg's pic.twitter.com/4z6AVFhety — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 12, 2014

Will there ever be a time when things European are not so divisive for the Tory party? — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014