politicalbetting.com

Latest ComRes online poll ENGLAND only compared with GE10 England result pic.twitter.com/q7pUA1iaBU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2014 At GE2010 CON led in England by 11.2%. Now just 1% Given that Scotland is operating totally differently at the moment I have been trying to identify the England only poll shares from the main surveys. The chart above is from yesterday’s IoS/S Mirror poll by ComRes and has the Tories just 1% ahead in England. That is ten points short…

Read More Read More

Fewer women say they are certain to vote and they are more likely to be undecided Just look at the chart which is based on the Populus November aggregate data with a very large overall sample from 9 separate polls. As can be seen male voters account for more than 50% of each party’s support with, not unexpectedly, UKIP showing the biggest divide. What is striking is that although the overall sample is weighted properly for gender balance when it…

Read More Read More

The impact this could have on overall GE2015 outcome If YouGov Scottish poll right LAB could lose 34 MPs which could seriously dent efforts to be top party — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2014 Remember YouGov’s much hyped poll before the IndyRef Eleven days before IndyRef YouGov’s Scottish panel had YES 2% ahead. NO won by 10.5% margin — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 13, 2014 Every single final poll before the Sept 18 IndyRef overstated YES and understated NO…

Read More Read More

South Kintyre on Argyll and Bute (SNP defence) Result: SNP 942 (62% +37%), Liberal Democrats 214 (14%, unchanged), Conservative 203 (13% -33%), Labour 156 (10%, no candidate last time) SNP HOLD on the first count with a majority of 728 (48%) on a swing of 18.5% from Lib Dem to SNP Gatehouse (Lib Dem defence) and Southcourt (Lab Defence) on Aylesbury Vale Gatehouse Result: Liberal Democrat 295 (36%), UKIP 267 (32%), Conservative 113 (14%), Labour 113 (14%), Green 28 (3%),…

Read More Read More

Chart from Ipsos-MORI showing how combined CON+LAB vote heading for record low pic.twitter.com/VsDS4VO3Tn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 11, 2014 It’s hard to work out the long term consequences The overriding theme of this week’s British Election Study conference was that things are changing quite dramatically and we really don’t know where this will end. Thus the certainty that existed about what will happen in Scotland in May has fallen apart in the past few weeks putting into serious doubt…

Read More Read More

Abandon the LDs % govern alone, CON MPs tell DC – http://t.co/Ju6VB1uzZ6 But what'd that do to post GE15 relations? pic.twitter.com/8zPzaSxh02 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 8, 2014 Good idea or not? A short-term problem is that if the coalition broke down in circumstances like this then the blues would be seen as the “guilty party” and there might be a price to pay. Getting commons business through without the LD vote might be very tricky and the government could look…

Read More Read More

Post Autumn Statement Commons seats spreads from Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR CON up 2/LAB & UKIP down pic.twitter.com/8h22hRhd9w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 Punters think this’ll help the Tories The above prices were fixed this morning and have remained all day. Interesting that UKIP edges down a touch as well as LAB. This election remains a very difficult contest to call and it is hard to make a case to buy or sell at any of the above levels….

Read More Read More