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Look at the very high proportion of non-voters With Green growth being the polling story of the week I thought the time was right to look at where expressions of support for the party are coming from. The chart above shows the breakdown from the last batch of Lord Ashcroft’s marginals polling where there’s a big enough sample to look at subsets. For me the striking feature is the large number who did not vote for any of the main…

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St. James on Kingston upon Thames (Con defence) Result: Conservative 1,123 (43%), Liberal Democrat 865 (33%), Labour 355 (14%), UKIP 206 (8%), Green 71 (3%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 258 (10%) Ollerton on Nottinghamshire (Lab defence) Result: Labour 1,171 (56% -2%), Conservative 533 (26% +4%), UKIP 347 (17% -3%), Liberal Democrat 24 (1%, no candidate last time) Labour HOLD with a majority of 638 (31%) on a swing of 3% from Labour to Conservative

Warnings about the dangers of hung parliaments might have less resonance One of the reasons why the LDs went into coalition in 2010 because they wanted to show that multi-party governments were possible. This followed an intensive end to the GE10 campaign when much of the Tory focus was designed increase worries and about what having an inconclusive outcome might mean. Well four and a half years in the coalition has survived and there appears to be not too much…

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pic.twitter.com/WJ3lPQIUPB — PolPics (@PolPics) December 14, 2014 Following poor results for LAB from Ipsos-MORI & Lord Ashcroft YouGov ends the week with the party 5% ahead LAB lead moves to 5% in today's YouGov poll for the Sun LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 16%, GRNS 8%, LD 6%2 Best for EdM's party for months — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 19, 2014 Four and a half months from the big day The week before Christmas is always an intensive one for…

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Jim Murphy pic.twitter.com/rsChNCPY8q — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2014 Why I’ve now become an SNP seller It is worth recapping why we are where we are in Scotland. Back in early 2011 it looked as though Scottish LAB was in a position to make a return to power in Holyrood ahead of the Scottish Parliament elections that May. At the start of the year all the polling had the party well ahead so that by the March, with only…

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ComRes ITV poll on the best party for the issues voters say will most influence their choice pic.twitter.com/tIeLwipejO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 17, 2014 But how strong is LAB on NHS and the cost of living? What is interesting about this ComRes survey for ITV is that it seeks to link the best party on each issue to what issues are likely to be decisive in influencing voter choice. Rather than just have “the economy” where the Tories are…

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Surprisingly the least likely were 18-24 year olds A report from the Electoral Commission on September’s Scottish IndyRef finds that three-quarters of the 16/17 year old did exercise their vote. This comes in a study carried out for the Commission by ICM in which a particular effort was made to identify and interview non-voters. An explanation by Professor John Curtice of why the very youngest segment was more likely to vote is that maybe they were encouraged to do so…

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Since Osborne's Autumn statement all the pollsters bar YouGov have had LAB leads pic.twitter.com/hQTcWdT8XI — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 16, 2014 Since Nov 10 all polls bar YouGov’s have had LAB leads Interesting looking through the Wiki list of Westminster voting intention polls and one thing stands out – LAB has maintained a lead of some sort with all the firms apart from YouGov which, of course, reports five times a week for the Sun and the Sunday Times. Above…

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