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LAB 35%= CON 28%= UKIP 18%-1 LD 6%+1 GRN 5%-2 OTH 9%+3 TNS-BMRB is one of nine pollsters currently producing at least monthly ahead of GE15 and is one that doesn’t quite attract the same coverage. It operates differently from all other firms. People are contacted face to face but then complete the survey online usually at home. It’s the way the firm selects its sample that makes it unique. With all polls you compare the numbers with what happened…

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Henry G Manson on the first phase of Campaign ’15 The Tories say voting UKIP would let Labour in. Labour say voting the SNP or Greens would only help the Tories. The SNP and the Greens both say Labour are the same as the Tories. The endless and numbing permutations go on and on and on with deceitful Lib Dem bar charts thrown in for fun. The early skirmishes of the general election have heavily featured on tactical considerations as…

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EdM on the Andrew Marr show pic.twitter.com/gArzupDgLA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 11, 2015 The big unknown of this campaign & maybe we won’t find out till May 8th It is said that a key strategy of the Tories in the coming months will be to constantly remind voters that Ed Miliband is LAB leader and that if the party did win the election then he could end up as PM. I am sure that that is the right approach….

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I love this pic from the 2010 debates (via @JohnRentoul ) pic.twitter.com/ZvjCYnhhOB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 8, 2015 The PM has just painted a huge target on his own back The Green Party is not the fourth party of UK politics and never has been so why is it treated by media and opponents alike as if it is? For most of the Greens’ history, the fourth party has been either the SNP or the dominant Unionist party in N…

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Are the purples starting to fade as we get closer? http://t.co/xYOsg7KTOD pic.twitter.com/bOZQzTY5Jc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2015 Today's YouGov poll for the Sun sees LAB and CON level pegging CON 33 LAB 33 LD 7 UKIP 13 GRN 8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2015 October 6th – last time that UKIP were as low as 13% with @YouGov pic.twitter.com/XfMClrsm8D — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2015 On UKIP's lowish numbers we need to see whether this is supported by other polling –…

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pic.twitter.com/WJ3lPQIUPB — PolPics (@PolPics) December 14, 2014 David Herdson on the GE2015 battle over the economy The cost of living crisis: five words that are likely to be repeated by Labour and the unions for another four months at least; yesterday’s rail fare increases being just the latest opportunity. For the opposition, it’s an easy hit and an easy narrative: the cost of x is rising faster than wages therefore people are getting worse off therefore the government is a…

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ICM Scotland poll for Guardian follows other firms & has big GE15 lead for SNP CON 13% LAB 26% LD 6% SNP 43% UKIP 7% GRN 4%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 26, 2014 The pattern is very much the same with all the pollsters and this must be regarded as further good news for the SNP and very bad news for LAB given that it holds 41 of the 59 Scottish seats. As has been said many times the SNP surge could make things very…

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Commons research paper http://t.co/4lfyEygikj on GE10 result In England CON was 11.4% ahead pic.twitter.com/MKjtBOp2sE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 25, 2014 Why England only poll data will be so important The above is the result for England at the last election and shows how well the Tories did there and the scale of the challenge defending their position in May. Overall they “won” England by nearly 3m votes with a percentage lead over LAB of 11.4%. In terms of eats they…

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