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Great New Statesman piece from Matthew Engel on betting on politics http://t.co/jeYWfWkD4f A good read pic.twitter.com/zVIakviW4w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 27, 2015 The full article is here. This is an extract that’s most relevant to PB “…The original purpose of both sides – trying to make a profit on the transaction – is certainly not absent. Indeed, in recent years it has become more central. At the heart of this phenomenon is a new class somewhat different from the blokes…

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Wikipedia has new polling table – ENGLAND ONLY – where CON led by 11.5 at GE10. 3 pollsters now providing this data pic.twitter.com/8U68NH31jx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 24, 2015 As can be seen the picture is very mixed In December I met some pollsters and some of their clients at the BES launch event and suggested that what would be enormously helpful was a breakdown of the England only figures. Whether it was my suggestion or not I don’t…

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The broadcaster have just issued a joint statement on the debates. The sting is in the tail. “The proposed dates for the debates are 2, 16 and 30 April. The order of the debates is to be discussed with the parties. “The party leaders will be formally invited to take part in these debates. In the event that any of the invited party leaders decline to participate, debates will take place with the party leaders who accept the invitation.” The…

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If @LordAshcroft polling right LDs could get 6 times the MPs as UKIP & 30 times the Greens on = or lower national vote share — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 21, 2015 It’s winning seats that matters not building national vote totals

Why DC is heading for Bedford. From Rob Hayward the GE2015 key seat change milestones on a uniform national swing pic.twitter.com/5iz6cWaLOL — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2015 One of the electors who won’t be taken for granted The above slide is from the Rob Hayward presentation and shows, on a uniform swing, the key tipping point seats. Column one is LAB to be on most seats, while the second column is the area for an overall LAB majority and…

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Marf on Democracy day pic.twitter.com/coMtLMz6dY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2015 UPDATE YouGov gets its sensational poll. CON 2% ahead YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour at 5 year low, Greens at a new high. CON 32%, LAB 30%, UKIP 15%, GRN 10%, LDEM 8% http://t.co/qK4FVYbRro — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) January 20, 2015 So three pollsters now show Green surge Ashcroft 11% ICM 9% YouGov 10% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2015 Tonight's YouGov is the first CON lead with YoGov since Dec…

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Greens jump 4 to 9% in latest ICM monthly phone poll. LAB 3 ahead. http://t.co/KlZttaT4N2 pic.twitter.com/qimcgSjTOv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 20, 2015 After yesterday’s poll from Lord Ashcroft showing the Greens on 11 percent there’s news this afternoon that ICM, the Guardian’s pollster, has the party on 9 percent – an increase of four points on last month. It really does appear that the row over the TV debates and general dissatisfaction with all of the main parties is…

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Tories slump 5 while Greens jump to 11 in this week's Ashcroft poll pic.twitter.com/1tZD76oWPp — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2015 Greens hit their highest poll share ever in latest Ashcroft National Poll After last week’s poll which had the Tories 6% today’s Ashcroft National Poll is even more striking – Greens at 11% CON 29-5 LAB 28= LD 9+1 UKIP 15-1 GRN 11+3