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Category: Coalition

Scoping the damage of the Cummings road trip and Johnson’s decision to ignore it

Scoping the damage of the Cummings road trip and Johnson’s decision to ignore it

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Johnson leader ratings We all know that on Friday May 22nd the Guardian and the Mirror first broke the story of the trip to Durham by Cummings and his family just before the Easter Weekend. Over the following few days it was just about the biggest thing dominating the UK media and everybody it seemed had an opinion. The question is how has this hurt the Tories and Johnson. The above tables show the voting intention and leader ratings from…

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As CON MPs get increasingly concerned about Boris the 3/2 that he won’t be leader at the next election starts to look tempting

As CON MPs get increasingly concerned about Boris the 3/2 that he won’t be leader at the next election starts to look tempting

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With the Tory voting lead dropping sharply in the polls and Boris trailing some way behind Starmer in the leader ratings there have been increasing reports of growing doubts about him amongst Tory MPs. This is what the excellent Stephen Bush writes in today’s I Newspaper:   As far as most Conservative MPs are concerned, the benefit of backing Boris Johnson for the top job was that he was the most well-placed to win the 2019 election. They always harboured…

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Trump is said to be obsessed with the polls and the news for him has been getting worse

Trump is said to be obsessed with the polls and the news for him has been getting worse

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With Trump’s poll ratings having taken a nasty shock the President has decided to hold his first big rally in month in Tulsa, Oklahoma next week. The venue looks odd given that the state is one of the most rock solid Republican you can find and it is hard to see any political gain in going there. Perhaps that is the point. He wants to go to an area where he knows he will be given an overwhelmingly friendly welcome…

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A new way of showing how LAB and CON are viewed

A new way of showing how LAB and CON are viewed

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This looks quite interesting – trying to assess how the main two parties are viewed by looking at responses to the same series of YouGov questions over a period of time. This has been all dressed up and called the Valence Index. No doubt we’ll see more of this in the coming months but it will be a long time before we can test this in a real election. One thing that strikes me is that there are more don’t…

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The case for betting on a Trump victory in November

The case for betting on a Trump victory in November

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A guest slot from Mr. Ed on Why he thinks the President will be re-elected If you don’t want Trump to win in November (which I think is most people on this site), then there is plenty of data out there to give you hope. The RCP national polling average has Biden’s lead over Trump at +7.1%. In key swing states, the RCP average also shows Biden leading in all 5 (FL, PA, WI, NC, AZ) and polls have suggested…

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A Tale of Two Lawyers

A Tale of Two Lawyers

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L’Affaire Cummings is over, its lasting significance, if any, yet to be determined. But there is one aspect of it, largely ignored by the media, worth exploring. It relates not to the PM or his advisor but to the Government’s two main legal advisors: the Attorney-General, Suella Braverman, and the Lord Chancellor/Secretary of State for Justice, Robert Buckland. First, a brief explanation. The Lord Chancellor is responsible for the justice system: the courts, prisons and probation services, some of the…

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Another pollster has Johnson dropping sharply in its leader ratings while Starmer takes a net lead

Another pollster has Johnson dropping sharply in its leader ratings while Starmer takes a net lead

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Can Boris get back to where he was? Ipsos-MORI, Britain’s oldest polling firm, has just produced its latest leader ratings and the trend is very similar to what we’ve seen from other pollsters. Johnson has taken a hit while Starmer has continued to rise. Clearly the PM’s lack of action over the Cummings lockdown road trip affair continues to grate with voters. With Starmer there are fewer don’t knows which are splitting in favour or the new LAB leader. This…

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