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So much rests on the final General Election poll I like the above chart from yesterday’s polling investigation presentation which does suggest that deliberately or not the overall affect was that a pattern that appeared like herding happened. I don’t blame the pollsters. So much is stake with their final election polls. It is something they can be judged on for the years that follow. Perhaps we need a more sensible approach to polling generally. As I’ve stated GE2015 has…

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Donald Brind: From a Labour perspective Emily Thornberry, the new recruit to the Corbyn Shadow Cabinet has a sense of mischief and tells a great story about her General Election outing in 2001 in the safe Tory seat of Canterbury. Her opponent was Julian Brazier, who is proud of his family’s military heritage. His father was a lieutenant colonel and he spent 13 years as an officer the Territorial Army, five of them in the with the SAS. At a…

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So what now for Farage’s party and the Referendum Campaign This week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast talks about UKIP and the upcoming EU referendum with Professor Matthew Goodwin of the University of Kent. Goodwin is one of the foremost experts on UKIP and is co-author of ‘Revolt on the Right’ (2015 political book of the year) and the more recently ‘UKIP: Inside the campaign to redraw the map of British politics’. Topics covered on this week’s podcast include: 1) How is…

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Botchery (Lab defence) on Carlisle Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 29, Labour 20, United Kingdom Independence Party 2, Liberal Democrats 1 (Conservative majority of 6) Result of ward at last election (2015): Labour 822 (33%), Independent 725 (29%), Conservative 516 (21%), United Kingdom Independence Party 345 (14%), Green Party 75 (3%) Candidates duly nominated: Rob Curry (Con), Stephen Sidgwick (Lab), Jack Paton (Ind) Result of ward at past elections (1999 – 2011) 2011: Labour 720 (50%), Independent…

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Damian McBride describing what he sees as the inevitable coup against Corbyn – from Times pic.twitter.com/TVjBwNAwCn — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 7, 2016 Any questions for a PB/Polling Matters podcast he’s recording tonight? The former Gordon Brown aide, Damian McBride has added his thoughts about Labour’s leadership situation in an article in the Times. An extract appears above. McBride, probably more than anyone, knows about attempted coups in the party and was instrumental in fending a few off while working…

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LAB’s performance in local by-elections since the new man came in The following, produced by Luke Akehurst for Labour List, shows “the change in Labour vote share in all the council by-elections where there has been a Labour candidate (and there was a Labour candidate in the previous contest so a comparison can be made) since the leadership election in September)” Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet