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Category: Coalition

Punters continue to desert Trump as do more leading Republicans

Punters continue to desert Trump as do more leading Republicans

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The embattled GOP nominee is continuing his fight even though leading Republican figures are in effect disowning him. He’s now as likely to focus his anger on his own party as Hillary Clinton. He’ been particularly venomous about the leading Republican in Congress, Paul Ryan. Inevitably the betting has continued to move away from him. Just 16 days ago he was a 35% chance on the Betfair exchange – that’s now down to just over 15%. But his following remain…

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Welcome to the new gerontocracy

Welcome to the new gerontocracy

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The pendulum has swung against the cult of youth. Why? So much for reconciliation and unity. So much for Shadow Cabinet elections. In an act that was at once decisive and divisive, Jeremy Corbyn’s reshuffle this week has made absolutely clear that there is no new start. As he said at the time of his re-election, “sadly for everyone I’ll be the same Jeremy Corbyn.” And so he is. Carrying out a snap reshuffle without forewarning is in fact good…

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It looks as though Mrs. May’s BREXIT strategy isn’t helping confidence on the markets

It looks as though Mrs. May’s BREXIT strategy isn’t helping confidence on the markets

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From the markets: Markets rattled by pound’s tumble https://t.co/yV1xyrZWpz pic.twitter.com/26BAOfN86o — Financial Times (@FT) October 7, 2016 The pound’s downward spiral continues At one stage during the night the pound tumbled for a few minutes to below $1.20 on the foreign exchanges. It has recovered a bit since then but the trend from the FR chart is very clear. Before the referendum the pound was touching $1.50. Until the weekend it had kept above the $1.30 mark – a line…

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All our thoughts should be focussed on wishing Steven Woolfe a speedy recovery

All our thoughts should be focussed on wishing Steven Woolfe a speedy recovery

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  I am now told by a senior UKIP source that @Steven_Woolfe condition in a Strasbourg hospital "is life threatening" — Robert Nisbet (@MrRobertNisbet) October 6, 2016 https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/784009704649392132 https://twitter.com/asabenn/status/783995028867776512 Ukip source says Woolfe and fellow MEP decided to "take it outside" after things got heated over reports he considered defecting — Asa Bennett (@asabenn) October 6, 2016 TSE   Finally some relief from the Strasbourg hospital. Senior UKIP source says: "he is now ok – waiting final scan but he…

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A look back to EURef: Even at 3.10am, five hours after counting began, REMAIN was still a 51% chance on Betfair

A look back to EURef: Even at 3.10am, five hours after counting began, REMAIN was still a 51% chance on Betfair

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The extraordinary moves on the biggest night of political betting ever Even though it is now more than three months away I am still getting asked question and being invited to give talks on what happened on the betting markets on that memorable night for political punters – the EU referendum results. The above has been prepared for a session in Brussels that I am taking part in later in the month. Michael Dent of Liberty Tech, is now providing…

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The big trend: CON and LAB are still failing to win voters from each other

The big trend: CON and LAB are still failing to win voters from each other

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The two big parties are left scrapping over the also rans One of the more remarkable features of the polling in the last parliament was the almost complete inability of both Labour and Conservatives to win voters from each other. Vote shares may have gone up and down but it was gains from and losses to the Lib Dems, UKIP, the Greens and SNP (and non-voters) that was responsible; the direct swing between the big two was negligible. As then,…

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Labour’s TINA* nightmare.

Labour’s TINA* nightmare.

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Don Brind evokes Mrs Thatcher’s memorable assertion It’s International Peace Day and I’m in the strange position, for me, of defending Jeremy Corbyn. My audience is someone who ought to be a natural Corbynista – a veteran campaigner for peace and international development. “I like Jeremy as a person,” I tell her”. He’s a decent man.” She is having none of it. “I think he’s a vain old man. He’s loving all that adulation but he’s peddling false hope.” Fast…

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