politicalbetting.com

  Looking at the process and the politics The man whose business methods can be charitably described as unconventional will take over the most powerful and most heavily scrutinised job in the world on 20 January next. Will his tenure end in impeachment? BetFred are offering 5/1 that “Trump will be successfully impeached by 2020”. History of Presidential impeachment No US President has been impeached and removed from office. Serious proceedings have been launched against three Presidents, Andrew Johnson in 1868, Richard…

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And the oldies seemingly less concerned about “unconditional BREXIT” As we move towards the formal start of the UK’s extraction process there’s going to be a lot of polling like this latest from ICM on voters view the current options. This is a very hard thing to poll on because of the tight-lipped approach by Theresa May who won’t reveal anything except to bosses of big Japanese car manufacturers who employ a lot of people here. Her refusal “to give…

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She needs to restore the Royal Prerogative for this area Back in May 2011 whwn Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats were negotiating the Coalition deal one of the key yellow objectives was the fixed Term Parliament Act. Not wanting to get into a situation whereby the Conservatives could ditch the coalition well before the five years and go to the Country the LDs made this a key condition of putting David Cameron in Number 10. Basically there are just two…

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Gallup Gallup shows her with a stable and distinctive edge on favourability As PB regulars will know I’ve long been of the view that leader ratings are as good an indicator, and quite often better, to electoral outcomes than voting polls. With these those sampled are asked what they think not what they will actually do and there’s an argument for saying that you get a more reliable response. A precursor to actually voting for someone, I’d suggest, is having…

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50% of June 23rd REMAIN voters say they’d back such a new party Between Tuesday 11th and Friday 14th October 2016, YouGov surveyed 4,507 adults in England and Wales. Respondents were asked two questions. First, they were asked how they would vote in a general election, and were given as possible response options the standard list of parties YouGov uses for such questions. A second question was then asked including a STOP BREXIT party in the list. The actual wording…

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Surely on these figures the Tories should comfortably hold Witney tomorrow with an increased share of the vote? New @IpsosMORI VI poll Con 47% (+7) Lab 29% (-5) LD7% (+1) UKIP 6% (-3) The Tory lead in emojis. 1 emoji = 1% Con lead. ?????????????????? — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 19, 2016 On the approval ratings that are often better predictors of general elections than voting intention figures Oppo ldr approval, 13 mths (MORI):Foot -48Kinnock -15Smith -4Blair +16Hague -25IDS -26Howard -21Cameron…

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