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TMay drops to her lowest favourability level yet I am really glad that YouGov has returned to doing favorability ratings because I believe that this is the best measure of how leaders, in particular, are being viewed. I can also take some ownership for the format because these were first initiated by the firm following suggestions from me a couple of years ago. Favorability ratings, of course, are the main measure used by American posters to test the political water….

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Whispers Tory MP s have reached the magic number of the 48 letters required to force a confidence vote – no way of knowing yet if true – meeting at 5.30 — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) July 9, 2018 On Betfair she’s odds-on to go this year What a day with “Fuck Business” Johnson quitting as Foreign Secretary and reports now that the required total of 48 CON MPs to demand a confidence vote on TMay has been reached. The betting…

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HwBqf7f294 The perfect football song to capture the national mood I should start by apologising to Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish. This is a thread about England. It is also a thread about the continual disappointment and thwarted dreams that England’s national football team has visited on its fans so on that basis, perhaps fans from elsewhere will forgive me. On one level, England’s record in major football finals tournaments is quite impressive. Today’s match is the seventeenth time that…

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The Chequers Brexit Plan is about winning the blame game Works away days invariably disappoint their participants and for all the beauty of the surroundings, the cabinet’s day out at Chequers won’t have been much different. Twelve hours of intensive discussions in literal hot-house conditions, to hammer out a Brexit policy that they could all stick to is surely no-one’s idea of fun. Even those politicians who have long dreamt of Britain leaving the European Union, the agreement of a…

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Telegraph A confidence move could make her position stronger This week is going to be all about the crunch cabinet meeting on Friday at Chequers when TMay is hoping to get agreement on Britain’s approach to Brexit. So we can expect a lot of sabre rattling like that above from Moggsy and threats of resignations and moves to oust her. The problem is that we’ve been here before. Those opposesed to the TMay approach have been briefing about resignations and…

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https://youtu.be/yLTg1aatqHs With the election of the Lega Nord and Five Star Movement in Italy, Target2 imbalances are growing again. The gap between the creditor nations (mostly Germany and the Netherlands) and the debtors (the PIIGS, less Ireland) is now back at levels last seen at the height of the Eurozone crisis. But wait. What are Target2 balances? Are they the result of Germany’s enormous current account surplus, or is there something else at work? More importantly, should you care about…

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Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet