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Category: Coalition

Topping, who served with the British Army in Northern Ireland during the troubles, on Ulster and Brexit

Topping, who served with the British Army in Northern Ireland during the troubles, on Ulster and Brexit

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Kenneth Allen / Bloody Sunday mural, Bogside Why the border issue is so important to both sides Why, when we’re busy trying to Brexit, is everyone hung up on Northern Ireland? Why should we let this small part of the UK, with a population just larger than Newcastle’s, dictate seemingly our entire Brexit settlement? Terrorism, people say. But we don’t give in to terrorists, so why does Northern Ireland and its terrorists get such special treatment? For most people in the UK,…

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Celebrating Theresa May – against all odds she’s still there and looks to continue to Brexit and beyond

Celebrating Theresa May – against all odds she’s still there and looks to continue to Brexit and beyond

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The great survivor hangs on My most significant betting loss since the last election has been on Theresa May failing to survive 2017. This was placed in the aftermath of her disastrous conference speech last October which just seemed to sum up her whole predicament – trying to carry on after losing the party its majority. We all recall the early hours of the morning of June 9th 2017 when the former Chancellor, George Osborne sacked pronounced on television that…

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UKIP might be edging back in the polls but was the biggest vote loser in the July 2018 Local By-Elections

UKIP might be edging back in the polls but was the biggest vote loser in the July 2018 Local By-Elections

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July 2018 Local By-Election Summary Conservatives 13,142 votes (37% +3% on last time) winning 11 seats (-1 seat on last time) Labour 11,198 votes (31% +2% on last time) winning 9 seats (-1 seat on last time) Liberal Democrats 5,670 votes (16% +5% on last time) winning 3 seats (+1 seat on last time) Independent Candidates 2,278 votes (6% +3% on last time) winning 2 seats (+2 seats on last time) Green Party 862 votes (2% -5% on last time)…

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TMay sees a huge drop in her YouGov leader ratings in three months

TMay sees a huge drop in her YouGov leader ratings in three months

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The Brexit splits are costing her and her party dear The chart above sets it out clearly the dramatic collapse that Mrs May has seen in her YouGov Well/Badly leader ratings since the start of April. I’ve been following these ratings for years and cannot recall a fall by such a large amount over such a short period for any leader. Of course she faces a huge challenge and it would be very difficult for any leader to negotiate his…

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My 270/1 shot for the White House indicates that he might run

My 270/1 shot for the White House indicates that he might run

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Watch out for John Hickenlooper – Governor of Colorado Back in early April I reported that I’d backed Governor John Hickenlooper for the presidency at odds of 270/1 on Betfair. One of the things about super long-shots is that you generally don’t know when you place your bet whether your man/woman will actually make a bid. So today’s strong indication that he is considering putting his hat into the ring is a big step forward. I’d first noticed Hickenlooper a…

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BoJo’s resignation speech – some reaction

BoJo’s resignation speech – some reaction

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It certainly wasn’t up to the Sir Geoffrey Howe standard The key points from Boris Johnson's speech in the Commons, from @Steven_Swinford * 'It is not too late to save Brexit. We have time'* Chequers is a 'permanent limbo and democratic disaster'* The Govt has spent past 18 months in a 'fog of self-doubt'https://t.co/Y7VACzOQNn pic.twitter.com/KIGzZ3PPwo — The Telegraph (@Telegraph) July 18, 2018 Boris Johnson says "the pound soared" after May's Lancaster House speech. Value of pound on day of speech…

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The big post-Helsinki polling question is will Trump’s ratings recovery be hit?

The big post-Helsinki polling question is will Trump’s ratings recovery be hit?

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RCP Judging by the US media there’s no doubt that Helsinki was bad for Trump. But was it? Will he still retain the support of his base? What will be the electoral impact of yesterday. US polling uses leader ratings much more widely than the experience in the UK and the first post meeting ratings numbers are eagerly awaited. As can be seen from the chart he has been enjoying something of a recovery. Will that be sustained or will…

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The Tory leadership – an alternative view

The Tory leadership – an alternative view

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Ian Whittaker on why Esther McVey might be the one to watch David’s piece yesterday was very insightful on the mechanics for how a new Conservative leader could be elected. I wanted to add a few thoughts on what has happened over the past week, and what are the betting implications on the political front. First of all, standing back, the last week has been, objectively, a disaster for Theresa May. That may seem harsh and it puts me odd…

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