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Betdata.io chart of Betfair market Last Thursday it nearly touched 50% There’s been a huge amount of activity on the £5m Betfair “Brexit by the end of October” market where just six days ago, after the deal was revealed, the chances of the UK leaving by October 31st were rated at 49%. More than £3m has been gambled with this one bookmaker in those few days. The Commons was always going to be a massive hurdle for Johnson given his…

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There are, broadly, two groups supporting Brexit. First: people who feel that globalisation has gone too far, the cards stacked for far too long in favour of the rich, the well-connected, the mobile, the “citizens of the world”. They want more attention paid to those valuing home, the local, the familiar, the traditional, the markers of belonging: a flag, anthem, a shared history, a sense of “us” and “our story”. Conservative – in the sense of not wanting too much…

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Like prorogation this looks like a classic Dom strategy but I expect Boris Johnson to be submissive to the courts early next week https://t.co/pwkQqnJYNp — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 19, 2019 It’s likely that this will end up in court on Monday. The case in the Scottish courts may well consider that this doesn’t not comply with the spirit of the Benn Act. — Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) October 19, 2019 https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1185663109761060864 https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1185664863856664577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpoliticalbetting.vanillacommunity.com%2Fdiscussion%2F8086%2Fpoliticalbetting-com-blog-archive-johnson-has-till-11pm-to-send-the-letter-or-else-he-could-face%2Fp7 NEW: No 10 sources tell the Sunday Times that…

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This is how the market’s seeing the coming battle So far I’ve only had one bet a buy of GRN seats at 1.5. SportingIndex link_ Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Not a good polling backdrop for “People versus Parliament” In the panel above from new YouGov polling published this afternoon there is clear support for a final referendum on a deal or if nothing can be agreed a no deal. This fits in with other polling that we have seen from other pollsters. It is going to be hard politically to drive through something based on the June 2016 referendum. That was then this is now and voters know much…

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Latest Opinium hasCON 36% – 1LAB 24% +3LD 20% +3BRX 11%-1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 28, 2019 Latest Opinium poll has the LDs the first choice of Remain voters, ahead of LAB, for the first time — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 28, 2019 Johnson leads Corbyn by 37% to 16% as to who would make the best PM – Opinium — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 28, 2019 More to follow

Votes Cast, Share, Change (in votes and seats) Conservatives 9,961 votes (34% unchanged on last time) winning 9 seats (unchanged on last time) Liberal Democrats 8,000 votes (27% +12% on last time) winning 4 seats (+2 seats on last time) Labour 7,914 votes (27% -7% on last time) winning 6 seats (+1 seat on last time) Scottish National Party 1,202 votes (4% unchanged on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last time) Green Party 1,170 votes (4% -1% on…

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