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Corbyn goes into the campaign with the worst Ipsos MORI opposition leader ratings it has ever recorded
And it’s hard to see what the party can do about it Above are the latest satisfaction ratings from Ipsos-MORI which started polling in the late 1970s. As can be seen from the chart Johnson is now in positive territory, Swinson is a net minus 12, Farage a net minus 22 with the LAB leader on minus 60. There are equal the worst numbers for an opposition leader ever. No doubt LAB optimists will be pointing to what happened at…
The General Election – identifying the top bellwether seats
Every single GB constituency ranked by how close they’ve been to the national swings over the past 3 general elections Thanks to AndyJS for once again creating a very interesting and useful spreadsheet. He mentioned this on the previous the previous thread and I thought it deserved to be highlighted even more. Sure the fact that the top seat is Bedford has made this stand ot for me. Interestingly at the referendum Bedford’s leave percentage was almost exactly the same…
The LDs seem to be spending big in a seat where they lost their deposit at GE2015 and got just 5.9% in 2017
If this is a target seat then you cannot fault their ambition This morning the above 8 page glossy A4 leaflet was delivered to my house by the postman (ie the distribution was paid for). What’s odd is not that this should happen but that I live in the Bedford parliamentary constituency which you could hardly describe as an LD prospect. At the last election this was a LAB gain from CON with the LDs getting just 5.9% of the…
Sell BREX, Buy PC, GRN & LDs – My current Commons seats spread bets
With December 2019 general election looking more likely I have just placed another Commons seats spread bet with SportingIndex. With this form of betting the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose. It lends itself very well to general election betting on things like how many seats will a party get. My latest bet is a BUY at 56 seats of the LDs on the LibDem 50 up market….
On the betting markets a December general election is now evens favourite
The Swinson December 9th plan could succeed As can be seen from the betdata.io chart there’s an increasing belief amongst punters that there will be a December general election. Later today the Commons will vote on Johnson’s motion under the FTPA for there to be an early election which he says would be on December 12th. Although he has named a specific date there is nothing that will make it happen then if 434 MPs do give it their blessing….
If there is no General Election then Bassetlaw could be the next big electoral test
A Tory by-election gain would be in line with current polling numbers Next week the LAB MP for Bassetlaw, John Mann is quiting as an MP to take up a government role fighting anti-semitism. He’ll be elevated to the House of Lords. This means that there will be a vacancy which in the normal course of things should lead to a by-election most likely in December. If the government doesn’t get its General Election motion through on Monday then when…
Why I’m betting that Farage’s Brexit party will get fewer than 4 MPs
Even at a time when Brexit totally dominating the news we are not seeing much of Nigel Farage who appears to be keeping a low profile at the moment. He’s opposed to the deal which has not endeared him to many of the party’s followers. His big problem, of course, is Johnson who appears to be dominating the pro-Brexit end of the market. He’s the one taking the battle forward while Farage has become an isolated figure of late. Given…