Server Upgraded!
Now with shiny https! Hopefully no problems. But if you do see problems, please send me an email at my gmail, and I’ll look into them. Thanks, rcs1000
Sorry!
About all the site problems. I did a server upgrade, and Vanilla refused to play nicely with the new server. So I rolled it back… and Vanilla refused to play nicely with the old server either. 🙁 You can access the comments here. I’m communicating with Vanilla, and I’m sure we’ll get it sorted soon. Thanks, Robert
How Britain’s electoral patterns are changing – three great FT charts
NEW: inspired by @p_surridge & @olhe, I looked at how the class gradient in British politics has been weakening. Labour's loss of the working class is not just a recent Brexit-triggered phenomenon. They've slowly been losing ground to the Tories with this group for decades. pic.twitter.com/oEOZmko75h — John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) December 16, 2019 While age is more polarising than ever, class no longer the dividing line it once was. Middle class now almost as likely to vote Lab as Con…
A LAB leadership election without Starmer on the ballot would appear very odd
From our Times Labour party members poll in July. Proportion who think x would hake a good leader of the Labour party:Keir Starmer – 68%John McDonnell – 64% Emily Thornberry – 59%Angela Rayner – 41%Tom Watson – 37% ?RLB – 34%Jess Phillips – 33% Laura Pidcock – 31% ? — Chris Curtis (@chriscurtis94) December 13, 2019 The above is from the YouGov Labour members’ poll in July and shows how Starmer was regarded then by the LAB membershp. However there’s…
Swinson’s successor may have only become an MP yesterday
It is a sign of the sheer carnage that the LDs suffered at the general election that one of the names being actively floated as a leader is one of those who have just been elected to the House of Commons. The reason is clear. Even though the party increased its vote share by 4% it saw a reduction in its seat numbers and there is a very small pool from which the new leader can emerge. The current fourth…
Punters on CON & the LDs are more bullish than the MRP projections while punters on LAB much less so
Tories drop two overnight on the Commons seat spread markets following the @YouGov MRP findingshttps://t.co/4YkmMD4pUd pic.twitter.com/8rT1Jqrs7X — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 11, 2019 The betting markets have now had time to assimilate the YouGov MRP projections and it is interesting to compare the current spreads with what was published last night. The spread on LD seats is out of line with the estimate of 15 seats from YouGov. As can be seen the latest spread has then at 18 SELL…
Chuka Umunna’s political journey: From 2015 favourite for the LAB leadership to trying to make a GE2019 gain for the LDs
Next LAB leader odds May 12th 2015 Chuka’s GE2019 campaign with a different party One of the most intriguing battles next Thursday is in the city of London and Westminster – seat which has been held by the Conservatives for well over a century. At the referendum the constituency voted just under 72% for remain and only 28% for leave making it it a tasty target for the Lib Dems in an election where Brexit is the dominant issue. The…
A suggested new cross-break for GE2019 pollsters – separate numbers for Remainia and Leaverstan
One of the distinctive features of polling for this general election has been the number of single constituency polls and we seem to be getting a new batch every Saturday night. In the main these have been showing something of a different picture from the main national polls. I think that just about all of them have been in Remain seats which might explain why some of the seat findings are far less friendly to the Tories. These are mainly…