” How’ll Newt cope now he’s in the lead? Welcome again to the PB overnight thread in the PB NightHawks cafe. Get the coffee on because those who can stay up late are in for an interesting evening and, I suspect, a fair amount of betting activity. The big event is what looks set to be the most important debate so far in the Republican race to become the party’s White House nominee next year. It’s taking place in Iowa…
But voting intention numbers are pretty steady There’s a new online poll just published by ComRes for the Indy on Sunday and the Sunday Mirror. The voting intention numbers are in the chart and show only margin of error changes on the same poll a month ago. The big change is in the ComRes leader approval ratings when respondents are asked to agree or disagree whether Dave/Ed/Nick are turning out to be a good PM/LoTO/DPM. It should be noted with…
Will the words translate into action? Margaret Thatcher famously once said that there is no way in which one can buck the markets, a fact of life that the Eurozone has finally woken up to and sought to address with a stringent set of rules for countries operating in the Eurozone, including constitutional commitments to keep structural deficits below 0.5% of GDP, submitting national budgets to Brussels for approval and sanctions for those who fail to meet their targets. This…
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Have the Tories shot UKIP’s fox? I’m told that there’ll be another Feltham by-election poll in the Sunday papers and we’ll see both pre-today and those responses that came after the dramatic overnight news from Brussels. One feature that will be interesting is the UKIP share. Will it be down at the 3% recorded in the massive Michael Ashcroft phone poll reported yesterday or might we see something higher. For Cameron’s robust approach in the negotiations will surely have ramifications…
What’ll this do to Cameron’s position? The events in Brussels are fast moving but the shots above of a Sarkozy news conference at at 5am local time crystallise what appear to be the main points from the British perspective. No doubt there’ll be more developments during day. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH
On Thursday, of course, we have Question Time on BBC1 followed by “This Week” which I reckon is the best political programme on TV. Also on Thursday we have the latest batch of council by-elections though there is only one this evening. This is your chance for a relaxed discussion. Welcome. Mike Smithson @MikeSmithsonOGH Recent Threads Help keep PB going by making a donation to support the site’s costs
Which’ll do better in the wards being transferred? Lord Ashcroft has funded another big sample telephone poll – this time on next week’s Feltham by-election. The chart above shows the shares with comparisons on the general election result. It’s believed that he uses Populus without the firm’s “spiral of silence” adjustment. As expected Labour are heading for a victory with the two coalition partners down a bit. What few people have picked up is that there’s a fierce CON-LD battle…