Labour opens up wide gaps in new polls The first of at least three new polls expected tonight is out and has LAB moving into a 10% lead. The pollster, TNS-BMRB has: CON 32% (-3), LAB 42% (+4), LD 10% (-1) and Others 16% (-) This is the largest gap recorded by the firm since the election and broadly follows the trends seen elsewhere. This post will be updated when other polls come out. Times Populus telephone poll has CON…
The Greens look set to lose their assembly seats There’s a new YouGov poll on the May 3rd London elections just out which has Boris ahead by a reasonable margin. Boris has 45% of first preference, Ken 40%, Lib Dem Brian Paddick 7% with UKIP’s Webb at 3 per cent. The Green Jenny is tying with independent candidate Siobhan Benita on 2% After taking into account second preferences Boris leads Ken by 6%. Although the Boris lead is comfortable he…
I am having the day off and there’s not that much happening Mike Smithson
Should he have said that the Economist will “rue the day”? Perhaps the most surprising feature of the Economist Skintland affair has been the unexpected second rate response by Alex Salmond. Rather than using it as a peg start to deal with the issues raised the SNP leader got on his high horse and he warned that the magazine would rue the day for portraying Scotland in a poor light. Yet he failed even to start to address what will…
Welcome again to the “cafe” This is the place for Britain’s best political conversation. @MikeSmithsonOGH
Betfair Politics Three weeks to ago and punters flee Ken According to those risking their money on the Betfair London mayor market Ken’s Chances are now just 21% based on the bets being traded this afternoon. This is almost a record low. At the same time Boris’s odds get tighter. It’s hard to argue with the market judgement. @MikeSmithsonOGH
Is it worth betting on? The ever resourceful market creaters at Ladbrokes have come up with a range of different new London mayoral markets which seemed to have been designed solely to tempt PBers. One of them relates to the operation of the quasi-AV voting system which gives all electors what’s described as a supplementary vote. If no single candidate reaches the 50% mark on the first count then the second preferences of those ranked third and below are added…
Is this the most worrying trend for the coalition? PB regulars will know that the one economic tracker that I keep a close eye on is the Who is to blame for the cuts? which YouGov has been asking at least twice a month for nearly two years. We hear it time and time again – the most central piece of rhetoric that comes from coalition ministers is that drastic action had to be taken because “of the mess left…