Even on Ed’s big day the Beeb calls him David…
Meanwhile we await a result from City Hall
The election counts continue…
Boris looks secure in London
CON still odds-on favourite for the general election – Betfair
Betfair At what stage will the market switch? After being totally hammered in the local elections you would expect that punters would take a fresh look at the chances of the Tories winning most seats at the next general election. The panel above gives the prices at 0824 this morning with a price of 1.88 (that’s 0.88/1 in real money) on the Conservatives winning most seats. The blues have been solid favourites since the market was set up after the…
It’s Labour’s and UKIP’s night
Projected national share of vote in UK #localelections: Lab 39%, Con 31%, Lib Dem 16%, Others 14% bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… #bbcvote2012 — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) May 4, 2012 650 key wards:PNS – Con 31. Lab 39. LD 16. Oth 14Change on 2008: Con -9%, Lab +17%, LD -8%Change on 2011: Con -4%, Lab +3%, LD n/c — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) May 4, 2012 Where UKIP’s vote is up more than 10 points, Conservatives are doing about 5 points worse, says election…
Will YouGov make it a hat-trick of London successes? UPDATED
Boris 43/Ken 38/Paddick 7/Benita 4/UKIP 4/Jones 3 After the second prefs have been allocated YouGov has Boris beating Ken by 53 to 47%. A big question is whether YouGov will continue its stunning success with this particular election. In both 2004 and 2008 its final poll got the outcome correct to within 1%. The poll contrast sharply with the one phone poll of the campaign by Populus which had a Boris 1st preference lead of 12%. The internet firm polled…
Is a Boris victory worse for the Cameroons than a defeat?
“..If he wins tomorrow, he will be the most popular Tory in the country, the saviour of the Cameroons but not one of them, and better placed than ever for an eventual run at the top job. They will hate their debt to him almost as much as the prospect that he may one day be their boss. Be in no doubt: for some very senior members of his own party, the only thing worse than Boris losing tomorrow is…
Will tomorrow see the return of the anti-Tory tactical voter?
Or will the 2011 dynamics be repeated? Last year’s local elections, the first to be held since the formation of the coalition, transformed the political landscape. The table above, prepared by Professor Colin Rallings for last month’s Political Studies Association briefing, sets out what happened in six different categories of council seats. The big picture from twelve months ago was that the Tories lost out to LAB but were able to make that up with gains from the Lib Dems…
Can we just ignore YouGov’s London mayor record?
2008 Mayoral Polls Date BORIS CON % KEN LAB % PADDICK % Actual Result 01/05/08 42 36 10 You Gov 01/05/08 43 36 13 You Gov 28/04/08 46 35 12 MRUK/Sunday Times 27/04/08 43 44 9 Ipsos MORI/Unison 24/04/08 38 41 12 YouGov 18/04/08 44 37 12 MRUK/Sunday Times 14/04/08 44 45 9 YouGov 11/04/08 45 39 12 Which will be closer YouGov or Populus? The polls, as I am sure we are all aware, are divided over the London…