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Harry Hayfield’s previews the day’s contests We have four by-elections this week (with two in the same local authority). They are Leashowe and Moreton East, Heswall, Brixton Hill and Hill. Leashew and Heswall are both on the Wirral, Brixton Hill is in Lambeth and Hill is in Fenland, Cambridgeshire. For each by-election, I will post the results over the most recent electoral term, that means where a ward has multiple elections (as in the case of the Wirral) I will…

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Chart showing fuller detail on today’s Ipsos-MORI poll. Amongst all voters UKIP on 7% but 9 with those certain to vote twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2013 And UKIP get 3rd place in a phone survey for first time The pie chart says it all. LAB hold a 13% lead over CON and the LDs slip behind UKIP for the first time in a phone poll. This is seriously bad news for the party and for Nick Clegg…

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Latest ComRes suggests that even CON voters have little appetite for full withdrawal from EU. See chart twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 14, 2013 Voters might dislike the EU but “full withdrawal” is a step too far With Cameron’s big EU speech only a week or do away there’s been a fair amount of media attention and, of course, more polling. Still when people are asked how they would vote in an “In/Out” referendum the polls suggest an exit…

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Could he soon return to the LAB front bench? There’s been a flurry of speculation about David Miliband this week and what future role he might play under Ed Miliband’s leadership, if any. Some have speculated that he could replace Ed Balls as Shadow Chancellor, but a more likely position would be that of Shadow Foreign Secretary. This was a job he occupied for two and a half years under Gordon Brown and is one he would relish returning to….

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Clegg says he’d like Huhne back in the Cabinet if he’s cleared. See – m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 10, 2013 We are now talking about a possible return for Chris Huhne following comments by Nick Clegg today. This is from the BBC report:- ““I would like to see Chris return, if he is cleared of everything,” he said. Mr Clegg described Mr Huhne, whom he beat to the Lib Dem leadership in 2007, as an “accomplished politician……

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Henry G Manson says ministers should expect a backlash Politicians of all stripes eulogise hard working families. They feature on our broadcasts, in set-piece speeches and in painful long-drawn out anecdotes that has been the trend of recent years. It’s got so bad that the impression given is that if you’re living alone you couldn’t possibly be hard working. Attention is given to families for good reason. Typically at least two voters at home, living connected lives at work or…

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