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Ipsos-Mori have published their political monitor for February. The Voting Intention Conservatives 30 (n/c) Labour 42 (-1) Liberal Democrats 7 (-1) UKIP 9 (n/c) The changes are from last month. Labour will be delighted to maintain a double digit lead with Mori. For the Liberal Democrats, they have fallen to their lowest poll rating with Mori since April 1990. What this means for the Eastleigh by-election, in one respect, polling like this may help Nick Clegg and his party, if…

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A lot of factors go into a voter’s decision of which party (or none) will receive the little mark on the ballot paper next to their name; issues, party image (present and past), local situation are all in the mix somewhere alongside other factors, arguing about the exact recipe keeps professional political scientists (and amateur psephological nerds) in comfortable arguments. For some time now YouGov have been running two types of regular issues polling, one asking which party they support…

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Ukip select their candidate for #Eastleigh. So only Labour to go. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2013 Could she make inroads into the Tory vote According the Ukip she’s been chosen for her “Tory appeal” – read all about her here The next few days on PB I’m on the train to Edinburgh in the morning for a three day visit during which I’m doing a presentation at the Scottish Parliament on polling and other matters. I’m really…

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Pie chart showing today’s ICM phone poll with record Ukip share and LAB lead twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2013 ICM finds a LAB lead of 26% (51-25) amongst women but only 7% with men — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 11, 2013 All this after Dave’s EU speech and Brussels budget As PB regulars will know I regard the phone polls from ICM as the gold standard so this afternoon’s survey is something of a shocker. The Labour…

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David Herdson looks at the Lib Dem leadership  Chris Huhne’s conviction and resignation from parliament has had many consequences, not the least of which is a very interesting by-election.  If the Lib Dems lose, it’s likely to put serious pressure on the coalition; if the Tories lose, it raises questions as to whether they can gain enough Lib Dem seats at the next election to form a government, even if they can claw back Labour’s lead; if both lose, it…

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