Opinium put Ukip on 17 pc – latest YouGov has it at 12
@tobyhelm If these numbers were from ICM,pollster for your sister paper the Guardian, this poll would be sensational.They aren’t. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 9, 2013 Latest YouGov has CON 31, LAB 41, LD 12, UKIP 12 – a LAB lead of 10% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2013 Unlike YouGov Opinium is only online pollster that takes no steps to ensure politically balanced sample. Doesn’t even ask about GE2010 vote — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 10, 2013 Ukip…
Are those green shoots?
Is there a recovery underway and what effect might it have? After a cold and dark winter, the sight of spring flowers defiantly if tentatively piercing the earth and braving the still chill winds is always something to raise the spirits; a pointer to sunnier days ahead. Â As with nature, so with economics: recoveries from recessions are usually patchy and slow to begin with but there comes a point where despite the bitter blasts from the continent, growth is at…
Exactly 2 years and 2 months to go and an Ashcroft mega-poll finds that a CON majority is the least preferred outcome
A new Ashcroft megapoll with 20,022 sample finds that more people want another coalition than a CON maj. LAB maj top. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 8, 2013 Precisely 26 months till the GE2015 results start coming in In exactly two years and two months on another Friday morning many of us will have been up all night watching the results of GE2015 come in. Will we be seeing the LAB majority that almost all surveys since Osborne’s March…
Victory in these 26 constituencies alone would give Labour a lead on seats at GE2015
LAB #GE2015 targets numbers 1 – 25 from ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labo… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 6, 2013 With polls as they are this looks an easy task This post is a follow up to the one we ran yesterday showing the most vulnerable constituencies for the three main parties. This one, from UKPollingReport shows the top 26 target seats for Labour – ones that really are “must wins” for EdM and his team. If this is all they won and…
It’s the PB NightHawks cafe once again…
Home of the web’s best political conversation Come in and talk about what you want It’s been a long time since we’ve had the PB NightHawks Cafe – so I thought we should revive. This is the place for the relaxed overnight conversation. Even if you’ve never posted before you are invited to join in. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB
Marf on a day with a lot of polling numbers
YouGov data confirms perceptions about Ukip supporters YouGov has put out some aggregate data from its February polling about those members of its online panel telling the firm that they will vote Ukip at the next election. The picture is broadly what we knew: Ukip voters are more likely to be older, male, and to be likely to havw finished their education at 15/16. They are also more likely to have an annual household income of less than £40,000. In…
Nick Palmer wonders whether “Compassionate Conservatism” can ever win
Strorm clouds over Westminster via @edwarddocx twitter.com/EdwardDocx/sta… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2013 The fundamentals that the by-election raises The outcome in the early hours of Friday morning prompts a reflection which should cause some discomfort across most of the political spectrum. Is it actually a feasible project for what Cameron has called “compassionate Conservatism” to win a majority? To discuss this, we don’t need to get into the debate whether Cameron is sincere or merely posing to attract…