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Category: Coalition

On the day of the LDs crucial economy debate new polling puts more pressure on Clegg

On the day of the LDs crucial economy debate new polling puts more pressure on Clegg

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Unlike the red and blue teams the LD conference has a formal policy making function with the result, as we’ve seen in the past, that it can embarrass the leadership. This year’s event, here in Glasgow, has so far gone okay for Clegg with votes on energy policy and tuition fees taking a pragmatic line. This morning things might just be different as delegates discuss and vote on the central issue of economic strategy. With Cable and Clegg said to…

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William Hill makes it 9-1 that GE2015 will lead to a second CON-LD coalition

William Hill makes it 9-1 that GE2015 will lead to a second CON-LD coalition

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At this price I’ve had a flutter – so should you With the party conference season opening today the bookies have got busy looking at existing markets and launching new ones. On LD seats we have:- William Hill open new market on LD seats at GE2015 4/1 0-20 seats 10/11 21-40 13/8 41 or more http://t.co/2F7WYoEVkx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 14, 2013 Ladbrokes LD seats GE2015 odds 31-40 11/4 41-50 7/2 21-30 4/1 11-20 6/1 51-60 10/1 Over 71 12/1 0-10 14/1 61-70 20/1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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Has Clegg told Cameron when he’ll stand down?

Has Clegg told Cameron when he’ll stand down?

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Deep speculation from David Herdson Back in the days of the USSR, Western experts attempted to interpret what was going on in the Soviet hierarchy by watching for all sorts of indirect signs, from who sat or stood where at state and party events, to how people were referred to in Pravda.  It was an indirect and not particularly reliable art but you make the best use of what you have.  To which end, let’s go in for a little…

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The best polling news for the Lib Dems since the tuition fees fiasco of late 2010

The best polling news for the Lib Dems since the tuition fees fiasco of late 2010

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30% of LAB supporters tell Ipsos-MORI that they could vote LD A sign of tactical voting? pic.twitter.com/eYwnFBR7YN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 13, 2013 The Ipsos-MORI guide to potential tactical voting One of the pieces of polling that’s come out today which has been a surprise is this from Ipsos-MORI. The question was delightfully simple and economical with words “If you had to vote for another party, which party, if any, would it be?” The summary results are above. For greater…

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2014 could see the end of the Lib Dems as a ‘national’ party

2014 could see the end of the Lib Dems as a ‘national’ party

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Henry G Manson on the start of conference season Lord Oakeshott’s interview in The House magazine will capture the headlines because of his claim Nick Clegg will cost the Liberal Democrats a large amount of seats. One thing he does point to is less contentious but almost as significant – May 2014 Oakeshott believes “this will be much the biggest test we’ve had on a nationwide basis of our support and our appeal since the general election, so that’s why…

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Local By-Election Preview : September 12th 2013

Local By-Election Preview : September 12th 2013

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Dunstable, Northfields on Central Befordshire (Con Defence) Last Local Election (2011): Con 48, Lib Dem 5, Ind 4, Lab 1 (Con overall majority of 38) Result at last election (2011): (Emboldened denotes elected) Party Candidate Votes Vote % Independent Julian Murray 877 32.9% Conservative Denise Green 757 28.4% Conservative Jeannette Freeman 753 Labour Michael Rogers 618 23.2% Labour Duncan Ross 594 Independent Laurie Mansfield 198 7.4% Lib Dems Roderick Keyes 168 6.3% Lib Dems Anthony Swain 117 Independent Mary Norman…

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If it really is “the economy stupid” then LAB has a big problem. But is it?

If it really is “the economy stupid” then LAB has a big problem. But is it?

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Chart from YouGov showing the trend its "Blame for Spnding Cuts" tracker. LAB finding hard to shake this off pic.twitter.com/4chGkNN1Pq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2013 Chart from YouGov with trend on party best able to handle economy. LAB behind pic.twitter.com/YKqWHVwhG0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2013 But isn’t this being “priced in” to the voting figures? YouGov chart on what's happened in its polling since GE2010 pic.twitter.com/iVPRkDQYKS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 12, 2013 That famous saying from…

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Latest Ipsos-MORI poll sees LAB lead down to 3 points and Ed’s satisfaction ratings at William Hague levels

Latest Ipsos-MORI poll sees LAB lead down to 3 points and Ed’s satisfaction ratings at William Hague levels

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Ipsos-MORI headline figures just those certain to vote Amongst all those sampled by LAB lead 10 See pic.twitter.com/ehp7Mthk3B — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2013 All 4 main party leaders slip, though EdM the worst, in Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings. See pic.twitter.com/AqALmRGVdw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2013 EdM's Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings now at William Hague levels. See trend chart pic.twitter.com/imwaazQfcj — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 11, 2013 In spite of this LAB still taking 31% of 2010 LDs Mike Smithson