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I back call by @ATCooperNo10, co-founder of British Polling Council & ex No10 that the CON incumbency polling be published — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2013 First time incumbents saw a bigger boost 1.6% The above data is from a post-GE2010 analysis by Prof John Curtice, Dr Stephen Fisher and Dr Rob Ford and shows how CON incumbents did compared to the overall increase in the party’s GB vote share. As can be seen the biggest increase was by…

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@MSmithsonPB Thanks Mike. Happy memories of us with Stephen visiting Hillary and Bill in the Oval in 1999. Deja vu! pic.twitter.com/I7K19lVaqf — John McCaffrey (@McCaffJohn) November 16, 2013 John McCaffrey ‘s departure is not good for Labour There’ve been two political fundraising stories over the past few days. The unsurprising news that Paul Sykes has promised several millions for the UKIP Euro election campaign for next May and the departure of John McCaffrey as Labour’s head of fundraising and commercial…

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A once in a lifetime chance: Have a drink on SeanT The next PB gathering will be at the Dirty Dicks pub just across the road from Liverpool Street Station in London from 1830 on Wednesday November 20th. These have become very much a tradition and a good time is generally had by all. There’s an area at the back of the pub on the first floor that is semi-reserved for us. Please try to make it if you can….

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pic.twitter.com/mI8RVHixt1 — Mike Smithson (@PolPics) November 16, 2013 And all the parties are complicit Around fifty years ago, the prime minister of the day confided in his PR advisor that “the period since 1832, in which the middle classes had dominated government and politics, was disappearing” and that “power was passing to organised labour”.  It was a surprisingly Marxist analysis to come from a Conservative PM but not untypically for a Marxist analysis, it was wrong. In some ways, Macmillan’s…

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Seaton on Allerdale Labour 464 (40%), United Kingdom Independence Party 426 (37%), Conservative 133 (11%), Green 108 (9%), Liberal Democrat 30 (3%) Labour GAIN from Independent Labour GAIN overall control of Allerdale with an overall majority of 2 Winton East on Bournemouth Conservative 503 (42%), Labour 215 (18%), United Kingdom Independence Party 212 (18%), Liberal Democrat 191 (16%), Green 48 (4%), Independent 34 (3%) Conservative HOLD Seaton on Cumbria Labour 628 (47% +15%), United Kingdom Independence Party 483 (36% +11%),…

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This is from a survey that looks at views of the parties in different parts of the country which doesn’t produce any startling conclusions – the Tories are less popular in the north while LAB had problems in the South outside London. These YouGov numbers are very similar to what Ipsos-MORI found in August when they asked about liking and disliking parties. There’s little doubt that if party wants to be liked then it’s better to be in opposition. Meanwhile…

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