Even though it’s only margin of error it will cheer the Tories The only real changes in tonight’s January ICM poll for the Guardian are LAB down 2 with the LDs up – both moves within the margin of error. After a poor polling start to the year the Tories will be pleased that ICM has such a close margin which will give them a boost. Exactly a year ago the first ICM of 2013 had CON 33/LAB 38/LD 15….
Nick Clegg on Andrew Marr show http://t.co/DZNREnCGSu — PolPics (@PolPics) January 12, 2014 Clegg makes the case for a further coalition It was Nick Clegg’s turn this morning to tour the radio and TV studios and his most interesting line was this from 5Live:- “Actually, if you look at some of the polls, there’s polls suggesting more people want another coalition of one description or another than they want a single party government. And by the way, I think they’re…
Has the Chancellor just set the terms of debate through to 2015? Popular memory recalls George Osborne’s 2012 Budget as the Omnishambles. Ed Miliband’s description was a little unfair, but only a little: any political event where opponents gain traction out of three separate criticisms of it is a PR shambles, whatever its other merits. It’s also – wrongly – remembered as the defining moment of the parliament in polling terms, from which Labour benefitted from a step-change increase. Actually,…
Haverhill East on St. Edmundsbury: UKIP 529, Lab 240, Con 157, Lib Dem 54 UKIP GAIN from Conservative Borough Green and Long Mill on Tonbridge and Malling (Con Defence) Result of last election to council (2011): Con 48, Lib Dem 4, Lab 1 (Conservative overall majority of 43) Independent 692 votes (39%), Conservative 588 votes (33%), Labour 84 votes (5%), Green 68 votes (4%) Independent GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 104 votes (6%) Overall Changes: Conservatives lose 2, Independents…
I’ve put this chart up before because it is so important in understanding the dynamics of the IndyRef campaign. For whenever YES is presented with a new poll they respond with what happened three years ago. And who can blame them? SLAB had built up big leads in just about all the Holyrood polls and the speculation was that the SNP would lose power that May and the red team would be back in with the possibility of an overall…
Swinton South on Salford (Lab Defence) Result of last election to council (2012): Lab 52, Con 8 (Labour overall majority of 44) Result of ward in last electoral cycle: 2010: Lab 1,671, Lib Dem 1,358, Con 1,055, Ind 837 2011: Lab 1,356, Con 553, Green 481, Lib Dem 277, UKIP 194 2012: Lab 1,072, Green 394, Con 376, BNP 172, Lib Dem 141, Eng Dems 112, Community Action 86 Candidates duly nominated: Neil Blower (Lab), Anne Broomhead (Con), Steve Cullen…
One of the great things about having a large overall sample, as Lord Ashcroft generally does, is that the sub-samples are based on numbers that give more confidence in the findings. This is why Lord Ashcroft polls in this way. Thus in the latest poll the total of public sector workers was 1.167 which is greater than the samples for many of the national surveys that we see. This has been a big area of change as the chart above…
Daily Mirror front page http://t.co/QOUhLchpah — PolPics (@PolPics) January 7, 2014 The juxtaposition with Osborne’s cuts announcement is unfortunate The Daily Mirror, which seems to be more comfortable with itself now Labour’s in opposition, makes the news about the MBE to the man who cuts Cameron’s hair it’s main story. The danger for the PM is that this could resonate because it touches on what’s perhaps his biggest negative in terms of the he’s perceived, that he doesn’t relate “to…