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Category: Campaigning

At GE2015 the traditional media will be far less important than ever before

At GE2015 the traditional media will be far less important than ever before

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Getting messages across is going to be a lot more difficult The above is from a Populus/Open Road poll which asked the simple question of which parts of the media people got information from each day. The poll did not cover the type of information so it is to be expected that percentages consuming what we think of as “news” are a lot lower. Clearly we’ve seen from newspaper circulation figures how the printed media is falling sharply. What I…

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In the marginals the presumption must that the more marginal voters will vote

In the marginals the presumption must that the more marginal voters will vote

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Polling turnout filters might be deceptive It has become standard practice almost all polling firms to include a weighting for turn out particularly in the final stages of a campaign. Participants are asked to rate the chances of them voting on a scale of 1-10 and the results are used to scale up or scale down their voting intention responses. The most radical approach is taken by Ipsos-MORI which only includes the views of those 10/10 absolutely certain to vote…

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Henry G Manson – On the Lobbying Bill

Henry G Manson – On the Lobbying Bill

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Henry G Manson on the lobbying bill. http://t.co/YGwgHKTdn3 Pic from http://t.co/Lghyxzdnvo pic.twitter.com/9OsvhyqtTG — TSEofPB (@TSEofPB) August 23, 2013     This Big Brother Bill Belongs to Zimbabwe Not Britain Hasty legislation usually makes for the lousy legislation. But for lousy and cynical legislation, look no further than the government’s ‘Transparency of Lobbying, Non-party Campaigning and Trade Union Administration Bill’. It appears to be the latest sinister stunt from a Conservative Party looking to boost its chances in the run-up to the…

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Data specialist Stephen Dunn gives his assessment of the Tory party hire of Jim Messina

Data specialist Stephen Dunn gives his assessment of the Tory party hire of Jim Messina

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Jim Messina – the ex-Obama strategist now advising the Tories pic.twitter.com/BnFcbbdlHO — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2013 Is it different over here compared with the US? Jim Messina, who was chief campaign manager for Barak Obama’s 2012 election campaign, has recently been recruited to assist the Tories with their 2015 campaign. This has attracted lots of attention and comment. Jim is known for utilising the power of “Big Data” – Massive, indivualised datasets that, allow fantastically detailed contact with…

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The constituencies where the LDs will be most vulnerable at GE2015 and those where they are likely to do best

The constituencies where the LDs will be most vulnerable at GE2015 and those where they are likely to do best

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The incumbency experience for the yellows at GE2010 There’s been some discussion over the weekend about the impact of incumbency and how it can help the parties achieve better outcomes in terms of seats won than the uniform swing might suggest. In a post on Saturday I looked at the GE2010 experience of the Tories and Labour. Today’s it’s the turn of the Lib Dems and the chart above shows how it performed on average in different types of seats…

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British politics is perhaps more nuanced than Lynton Crosby thinks

British politics is perhaps more nuanced than Lynton Crosby thinks

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Lynton Crosby – the Australian campaigning expert said to be behind the attacks on LAB over the NHS pic.twitter.com/SmOznwaHeP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 16, 2013 Is his Oz template right for Britain? Whatever you might think of him the great contribution Oz campaigning “guru” Lynton Crosby has made to the current political scene has been to give the Tory party and particularly its MPs their confidence back. That is no mean feat. In recent weeks he is said to…

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I’m Harry Hayfield and I do NOT approve this message

I’m Harry Hayfield and I do NOT approve this message

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It’s extremely rare for me to oppose a statement made on PB.com by Mike Smithson but his suggestion that the United Kingdom should have paid political adverts fills me with absolute dread. Why? Well, call it bitter experience but having an interest in elections that use the FPTP method of election, I have seen adverts for political candidates that would make your hair curl from that home of the brave and land of the free, the United States and having…

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