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Category: By elections

Will we ever see headlines like this again?

Will we ever see headlines like this again?

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What’s happened to the Lib Dem by-election machine? Another by-election has come and gone with another Labour loss and another gain for the Conservatives, only their second since losing power twelve years ago. That rarity says much about the Conservatives but it’s not as if governments haven’t lost by-elections in that time, it’s just that the Tories didn’t win them. The Lib Dems were the acknowledged masters of parliamentary by-elections. From the heady days of the Alliance onwards, a steady…

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Has Norwich North become the forgotten by-election?

Has Norwich North become the forgotten by-election?

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Is it really less interesting than mange tout? In little more than a fortnight, the voters in Norwich North will go to the polls to (probably – see below) elect a successor to Ian Gibson, the Labour MP who resigned following his effective de-selection by Labour. The first postal ballots will be going out in a matter of days. Yet despite the prospect of a direct loss from Labour to the Conservatives, which would be only the second such Tory…

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More by-election fun in Norwich North

More by-election fun in Norwich North

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Now for some betting action… I spent all of yesterday with Iain Dale and Hopi Sen on the PLAY Talk Radio show covering the local election results, the PM’s press conference, the mother of all reshuffles, and general political debates of the day. By my reckoning we had between 4 and 6 months’ news yesterday, but the 9-and-a-half hour show was topped with a PoliticalBetting.com cherry: a competitive by-election sparked by the resignation of Labour MP Dr Ian Gibson in…

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So what’s the answer to the Mail’s question?

So what’s the answer to the Mail’s question?

Is Gord ready to “kill Martin off”? Of all the front pages this morning the one that gets to the heart of the matter is the Daily Mail – is the Prime Minister ready to make the parliamentary time available fot the confidence motion on his fellow Scot, Michael Martin to be debated? If he doesn’t Brown will face a mighty storm and possibly lasting and terminal damage to what remains of his political career. If he does then it…

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Can Martin survive without Harman’s support?

Can Martin survive without Harman’s support?

Could the Speaker’s job now be on the line? Harriet Harman is in a very different category from every other member of the cabinet. For she owes her position of Deputy Leader to her successful campaign in last year’s election. Brown could sack her from his cabinet but he can’t fire her as his deputy. This has given an independence of action which she seems ready, when necessary, to use. As leader of the house she is in a position…

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Is it now “Game On” for the general election?

Is it now “Game On” for the general election?

A day for humble pie from punters? There’s little doubt that Labour’s successful defence overnight of Glenrothes, and by such a margin, is a sensational result that has the potential to change the political landscape. It is also one in the eye for punters who got this terribly wrong. My initial call on this, just ten days ago, was to back Labour at prices that were then about 7/4. The opinion polls in Scotland were running in the party’s favour…

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Are MPs reading Glenrothes right?

Are MPs reading Glenrothes right?

Why the split with the media views? This morning the “insiders and experts” who make up the PH100 gave their final verdict on today’s by election in Fife – and their view is that it’s very close but that Labour might just do it. Interestingly PH reports a massive split in the panel between the politicians and the media representatives: “The media panellists are political editors, leading commentators and executives. A solid majority of them are forecasting a win for…

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Have punters got Labour’s chances about right?

Have punters got Labour’s chances about right?

Will it be a humiliation for Gord? As has been reported here before the date for the Glenrothes by-election was originally fixed for tomorrow because it was hoped that in the US election aftermath then yet another Labour defeat would hardly get noticed. Well things have changed since the date was set and we are now experiencing the renaissance of Gordon following his actions in the bank bailout crisis. Although this has hhad hardly any impact on the voting intention…

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