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Category: By elections

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview

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Weaste and Seedley on Salford (Lab Defence) Last Election Result (2012): Lab 52, Con 8 (Labour majority of 44) Salford is the epitome of a Labour heartland electing a Labour majority even in the most dire electoral positions for Labour (clearly demonstrated in 2008 when Labour’s overall majority fell to 12) but which since the general election has (as many other Labour areas have done) become a virtual one party state. Therefore we can say that Labour should hold it…

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Local By-Election Preview: June 13th 2013

Local By-Election Preview: June 13th 2013

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Liversedge and Gomersal on Kirklees (Con Defence) Last Local Elections (2012): Lab 32, Con 18, Lib Dem 10, Green 5, Others 4 (No Overall Control, Lab short by 3) Ward Results in current electoral cycle Local Elections   2010 Local Elections   2011 Local Elections   2012 Party Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Votes Cast % Share Conservatives 3,667 42% 2,467 47% 2,021 49% Labour 2,284 26% 2,189 42% 1,577 38% Liberal Democrats 1,548 18% 290 6%…

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Local By-Election Preview : May 16th 2013

Local By-Election Preview : May 16th 2013

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Harry Hayfield’s guide to the action Coker on Somerset (Deferred Election) Last Council Election (2013): Con 28, Lib Dem 18, Lab 3, UKIP 3, Ind 2 (Conservative majority of 2) Last Ward Election (2009): Lib Dem 1,454 (45%) Con 1,365 (43%) Green 249 (8%) Ind 131 (4%) Last Ward Election (2009 Notional): Lib Dem 1,687 (46%) Con 1,559 (43%) Green 271 (7%) Ind 151 (4%) Somerset has always been a Conservative / Liberal Democrat battleground going back as far as…

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It has been working class voters who have been the main driver of the Ukip vote

It has been working class voters who have been the main driver of the Ukip vote

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This is what the polling showed in Eastleigh Above is the split for the final Eastleigh poll by Lord Ashcroft. As can be seen it was C2s and DEs who swung most to the purples. We are seeing the same trend in current polling. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB

My prediction: Ukip to gain 100+ seats and get a big result in South Shields

My prediction: Ukip to gain 100+ seats and get a big result in South Shields

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South Shields: LAB punters getting slightly nervous on Betfair with price edging out from 1/99 to 1/25.twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 2, 2013 May 2nd 2013: The day could be a turning point in British politics Talking with party activists of all colours last night whose judgement I respect I believe that Ukip are set to do better in today’s local elections than the predictions. Remember that in local by-elections in principal authorities that UKip have chalked up three…

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South Shields by-election: Round-up of betting prices

South Shields by-election: Round-up of betting prices

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Ladbrokes South Shields Ukipshares:0-10 7/110-20 6/420-30 13/830-40 4/140+ 20/1 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013 LAB very strong favourites to hold Thursday’s South Shields by-election. See twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013 South Shields betting without LAB from PaddyPower. The odds & where money’s going. bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013 South Shields betting CON vote share from PaddyPower. The odds & where money’s going. bit.ly/I8PkIO twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30,…

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The chink in LAB’s armour in South Shields – it has never had to try hard there in the past

The chink in LAB’s armour in South Shields – it has never had to try hard there in the past

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Labour’s candidate in South Shields, Emma Lewell-Buck sets out her “pledges”. goo.gl/77tx8 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2013 After its defeat in 1992 Labour went to great lengths to ensure that it would not lose a fifth successive general election. A key part of the strategy was a ruthless approach to targeting. So seats that were beyond the party’s reach were simply ignored and seats in Labour’s heartlands which were certainties were also put into that category. That…

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