Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview

Harry Hayfield’s Local By-Election Preview


Weaste and Seedley on Salford (Lab Defence)
Last Election Result (2012): Lab 52, Con 8 (Labour majority of 44)

Salford is the epitome of a Labour heartland electing a Labour majority even in the most dire electoral positions for Labour (clearly demonstrated in 2008 when Labour’s overall majority fell to 12) but which since the general election has (as many other Labour areas have done) become a virtual one party state. Therefore we can say that Labour should hold it (but just because a party has a virtual monopoly on a council, does not mean that it should take all seats for granted, especially with UKIP on the move in all areas of the country)

Ward Results (in current electoral cycle):

Local Elections   2010

Local Elections   2011

Local Elections   2012

Name of party

Votes Cast

% Share

Votes Cast

% Share

Votes Cast

% Share

Labour

1,884

42%

1,333

48%

1,240

Liberal Democrats

1,623

37%`

406

15%

424

Conservatives

941

21%

377

14%

287

Independents

439

15%

119

Green

222

8%

BNP

197

Liberton and Gilmerton on Edinburgh (SNP Defence)
Last Local Election Result (2012): Lab 20, SNP 18, Con 11, Green 6, Lib Dem 3 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 10)
Ward Result: Labour 3,709 (41%), SNP 2,864 (32%), Con 1,111 (12%), Lib Dem 687 (8%), Green 469 (5%), SSP 228 (3%)
Members Elected: SNP, Lab, Con

Fife UA, Glenrothes North, Leslie and Markinch (Lab Defence)
Last Local Election Result (2012): Lab 35, SNP 26, Lib Dem 10, Ind 4, Con 3 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 5)
Ward Result: SNP 2,536 (48%), Lab 2,183 (41%), Con 310 (6%), Scottish Pensioners 226 (4%), Lib Dem 82 (2%)
Members Elected: Lab, SNP, SNP

As I have stated before, as I do not know the complexities of Scotland’s local elections following the establishment of STV local elections, I strongly recommend a read of http://www.scottishelections.org.uk/ where Kristofer Keane will be able to guide you through the ins and outs.

Bletchley and Fenny Stratford on Milton Keynes (Lab Defence)
Last Local Election (2012): Con 20, Lab 16, Lib Dem 15 (No Overall Control, Conservatives short by 6)

Ward Results (in current electoral cycle):

Local Elections   2010

Local Elections   2011

Local Elections   2012

Name of party

Votes Cast

% Share

Votes Cast

% Share

Votes Cast

% Share

Conservatives

2,894

45%

1,692

38%

1,223

35%

Labour

1,993

31%

1,614

36%

1,270

37%

Liberal Democrats

833

13%

278

6%

161

5%

Greens

253

4%

545

12%

420

12%

UKIP

466

7%

341

8%

375

11%

Others

7

0%

Milton Keynes is yet another example of how the Liberal Democrats have faded in the eyes of the electorate and yet, perhaps due to being in the south of England, they are still a relatively powerful force on the council. Back in 2003, the Liberal Democrats controlled Milton Keynes council (the only one in the whole of Buckinghamshire county) however in 2006 they lost control but still remained the largest party until 2011 when they lost six seats, however it was not Labour who made the gains (as they remained unchanged on nine councillors) it was the Conservatives who made four gains and the Independents two gains. In the 2012 local elections, as in the rest of the country, Labour made the most progress (making seven gains) but instead of all coming from the Lib Dems (who lost three councillors overall) they came from everyone including the Conservatives who lost one councillor net and the Independents who lost their three seats and were wiped out. So, could Milton Keynes be the starting point for a Liberal Democrat recovery?

Coming up later Harry H on tonight’s Donside by-election

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