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Category: By elections

Newark: The final day of campaigning in a battle so important to both CON and UKIP

Newark: The final day of campaigning in a battle so important to both CON and UKIP

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Watch Shadsy of Ladbrokes in this clip Not long to go now and the polling stations will be opening in Newark for a by-election that, whatever the outcome, will make history. Either the Tories break their terrible record of losing every by-election defence while in office over the past 25 years or UKIP break their ongoing losing sequence and actually win a seat. The only possible other outcome that could spoil this is Labour but from all accounts they have…

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Ladbrokes report “surge of money on UKIP” in Newark and no CON bets

Ladbrokes report “surge of money on UKIP” in Newark and no CON bets

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Newark: The Buttermarket. pic.twitter.com/mfLSoyfP7y — Roger Helmer (@RogerHelmerMEP) June 2, 2014 Newark UKIP backers defy the polls Local punters are queueing up to back UKIP at 6/1 to surprise the pollsters to win Thursday’s Newark by-election, according to Ladbrokes. The bookies reported that they had failed to take a single bet on the Tories in the town’s betting shops on Tuesday. Despite that, the Tories remain odds-on favourites to retain the seat in what has become a clear two-horse race….

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If the pollsters are understating UKIP like at previous by-elections then Newark is absolutely neck and neck

If the pollsters are understating UKIP like at previous by-elections then Newark is absolutely neck and neck

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Traditional methodology might not be applicable Tomorrow afternoon Lord Ashcroft is publishing his poll for Thursday’s Newark by-election which will be the only the second survey that’s been carried in what’s turning out to be a humdinger of a fight between UKIP and the Tories. Both have got historical baggage that a win could help them shed. For you have to go back to William Hague’s victory in the N Yorks seat of Richmond in 1989 to find the last…

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The first Newark by-election opinion poll is out

The first Newark by-election opinion poll is out

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The Tories are ahead in this poll for the Sun by Survation, but down nearly 18% since the general election, but with a strong campaign, I can see either UKIP or Labour winning, the fact that UKIP are up over 24% since the General Election, compared to 4.7% that Labour are up since the election, shows the momentum is with UKIP. The normal caveats that this just one poll, this raises an interesting dilemma for Labour, and their supporters? Do…

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Roger Helmer: Ukip’s first elected MP?

Roger Helmer: Ukip’s first elected MP?

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If reports are correct Roger Helmer is set to become Ukip candidate in Newark & possibly party's first elected MP pic.twitter.com/WLN5uP0NtD — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2014 He could appeal to the party’s key target voters According to the Sun the controversial Ukip MEP, Roger Helmer is being lined up to be the party’s candidate for the Newark by-election which takes place on June 5th two weeks after the May 22nd Euros. If, as is widely assumed, Ukip do…

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Time to make a call. The value bet in Newark is 3-1 that it will be Labour

Time to make a call. The value bet in Newark is 3-1 that it will be Labour

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At Corby there was 12.7% CON>LAB swing but that was pre-Ukip surge & fewer 2010 LDs to squeeze Newark requires 15.4% LAB @ 3/1 great bet — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 2, 2014 We now have a by-election date, June 5th, the declaration by Ukip leader, Nigel Farage, that he won’t be his party’s candidate and the launching of Newark markets by the main political bookmakers. My money at this early stage has gone on Labour simply because it is the value…

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Farage should only be the Ukip candidate in Newark if they are 90% certain that he’d win

Farage should only be the Ukip candidate in Newark if they are 90% certain that he’d win

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Another good second place won’t be enough The media frenzy and the clamour for Farage to be the Ukip candidate will continue until he decides one way or the other. My assumption is that given the possibility that Newark has been on the cards for nearly a year that all the parties would have carried out preliminary work and have come to an assessment about their strategy. Ukip must have an idea of the terrain. The challenge for them is…

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By-election in Newark as Patrick Mercer resigns – Will Farage stand?

By-election in Newark as Patrick Mercer resigns – Will Farage stand?

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New PB Thread on the Newark by-election http://t.co/4w5rDEVYsB pic.twitter.com/3lZWA51Yug — The Screaming Eagles (@TSEofPB) April 29, 2014 So we have a by-election in Newark. Earlier on today, when I speculated on whether a Newark by-election will be held on May 22nd, the same day as the locals and Euros, Mark Senior posted It is impossible for there to be a by election in Newark or anywhere else on May 22nd . section 14 of the Electoral Registration and Administration Act 2013…

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