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Category: By elections

Local By-Election Preview : December 23rd 2015

Local By-Election Preview : December 23rd 2015

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Grendon, Underwood and Brill (Con defence) on Aylesbury Vale Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 43, Liberal Democrats 9, United Kingdom Independence Party 4, Labour 2, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 27) Result of ward at last election (2015): Conservative 1,068 (55%), United Kingdom Independence Party 427 (22%), Green Party 246 (13%), Liberal Democrats 213 (11%) Candidates duly nominated: Cameron Branston (Con), Gary Good (UKIP), Julian Newman (Lib Dem) Aylesbury Vale is perhaps a fitting way to end…

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Local By-Election Result (December 16th 2015) and Local By-Election Preview : December 17th 2015

Local By-Election Result (December 16th 2015) and Local By-Election Preview : December 17th 2015

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Gogarth (Con defence) on Conwy Result: Conservative 318 (42% +12%), Labour 187 (25% -3%), Plaid Cymru 167 (22% +10%), Liberal Democrat 49 (7%), Independent 28 (4% -26%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 131 (17%) on a swing of 7.5% from Labour to Conservative Kensal Green (Lab defence) on Brent Result of council at last election (2014): Labour 56, Conservatives 6, Liberal Democrat 1 (Labour majority of 49) Result of ward at last election (2014): Embooldened denotes elected Labour 1,819,…

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If Sadiq wins the London Mayoralty then Ken could return to the Commons as MP for Tooting

If Sadiq wins the London Mayoralty then Ken could return to the Commons as MP for Tooting

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He’d be more use to Corbyn there than in the upper house There’s been a lot of talk in recent days about the former LAB Mayor of London, Ken Livingston, being made a peer and perhaps becoming his party’s leader in the Lords. The story I’ve been getting this afternoon is that there’s another plan to enable Ken to return to Westminster. If the betting favourite, Sadiq Khan, does become London Mayor in May’s election then there’ll be a by-election…

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Before tonight’s big GOP debate some new Iowa polling and Local By-Election Preview

Before tonight’s big GOP debate some new Iowa polling and Local By-Election Preview

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Loras College poll has Cruz 7% ahead in IowaCruz 30Trump 23Rubio 11Carson 11Bush 6Fiorina 3,Paul 2Huckabee 2Christie 0 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 @ppppolls have Trump still ahead in IowaTrump 28Cruz 25Rubio 14Carson 10Bush 7Fiorina 3Christie 3Huckabee 3Paul 2Kasich 2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 ABC/Wash Post poll has Trump with big lead in national pollTrump 38Cruz 15Rubio 12Carson 12Bush 5Christie 4Paul 2Kasich 2Fiorina 1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 15, 2015 Republican nominee race: At…

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UKIP sought to make Oldham a referendum on Corbyn but it ended up being a vote on itself

UKIP sought to make Oldham a referendum on Corbyn but it ended up being a vote on itself

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Does immigration move votes in the way UKIP thinks it it does? Over the past few days I’ve had three conversations with people who were in Oldham for the by-election and which are the basis for this post which seeks to explain why we all got it so wrong. Just look at the PB competition forecasts or the betting history and you realise that it wasn’t meant to be a LAB victory with an increased majority. Since September 12th the…

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An LD won off UKIP in this week’s Local By-Elections

An LD won off UKIP in this week’s Local By-Elections

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Kinson South (Two Conservative defences) on Bournemouth Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Apology Number One: The result last time was for Kinson NORTH ward, this is the correct result for Kinson SOUTH ward United Kingdom Independence Party 1,224 (25%) Conservatives 1,188, 1,147, 919 (25%) Labour 1,083, 951, 875 (22%) Bournemouth Independents 489 (10%) Green Party 471 (10%) Liberal Democrats 378 (8%) Result: Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 520, 509 (33% +8%) Labour 471, 371 (29% +7%)…

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At 10.30 am we’ll find out if the 2nd by-election of the 2015 parliament will be in Orkney and Shetland

At 10.30 am we’ll find out if the 2nd by-election of the 2015 parliament will be in Orkney and Shetland

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UPDATE Carmichael cleared Wednesday's The National front page:Carmichael:Judgment Day#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers #scotpapers pic.twitter.com/mVRAzpxg2w — Nick Sutton (@suttonnick) December 8, 2015 The election court will announce its decision in the Carmichael case If the case goes against the former Scottish Secretary then the LDs could lose the one seat in Scotland they hold and have to fight a by-election. Based on what happened in the Phil Woolas case in 2010 the Speaker might delay calling a vacancy in the constituency pending the…

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CSI Oldham: The by-election autopsy

CSI Oldham: The by-election autopsy

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Alastair Meeks reviews the Oldham West and Royton by election After any betting event, successful or unsuccessful, it is important to take stock of what went wrong and what went right.  This is especially important when expectations were completely upended, as happened on Thursday night in the Oldham West & Royton by-election. What happened? Contrary to all prior expectations, Labour not only won comfortably, it increased its share of the vote.  This should not have been a surprise.  As I…

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