Browsed by
Category: By elections

In the other election in Copeland on GE2015 day voters rejected both LAB and CON. A by-election pointer?

In the other election in Copeland on GE2015 day voters rejected both LAB and CON. A by-election pointer?

Comments 0 Comment

With the big Westminster by-election in 2017 set to be the Cumbrian seat of Copeland currently held by Labour it is worth looking at another recent election in the area to get a sense of the voting patterns in the area. Back on general election day in the part of the constituency covered by Copeland non-metropolitan district council voters had for the first time a directly elected mayoral election. Copeland is just one of three such councils in England which…

Read More Read More

Alastair Meeks on what we don’t know about Copeland

Alastair Meeks on what we don’t know about Copeland

Comments 0 Comment

Early next year we have an intriguing by-election lined up.  The day after Parliament rose for its recess, Jamie Reed announced that he would be standing down as MP for Copeland to take up a role at Sellafield.  This sent commentators scrabbling for their atlases and constituency guides.  The following salient facts have been noted: Copeland and its predecessor seat Whitehaven have been Labour-held since 1935. The Labour majority is, however, just 7% over the Conservatives. No sitting government has…

Read More Read More

Local By-Election Results December 22nd / December 2016 Summary

Local By-Election Results December 22nd / December 2016 Summary

Comments 0 Comment

Aylesham (Lab defence) on Dover Result: Labour 460 (62% -6%), Conservative 283 (38%, no candidate in 2015) Labour HOLD with a majority of 177 (24%) on a notional swing of 22% from Labour to Conservative Hedge End, Wildern (Lib Dem defence) on Eastleigh Result: Liberal Democrat 672 (64% +22%), Conservative 263 (25% -3%), Labour 107 (10% -2%) Liberal Democrat HOLD with a majority of 409 (39%) on a swing of 12.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat December 2016 Local By-Election…

Read More Read More

Signs are that 2017 could be a big Westminster by-election year topping even 2016

Signs are that 2017 could be a big Westminster by-election year topping even 2016

Comments 0 Comment

We know of two already and 2017 hasn’t even started One of the big trends in recent times, as the chart shows, has been for a big increase in by-elections caused by other than the death or health of the sitting MP. This year there’ve been seven contests with five of them in the “other” category. Ogmore and Toting were caused by the sitting MP either switching to the Welsh Assembly or becoming Mayor of London. Two of the other…

Read More Read More

It’s a fallacy to presume that 60% of those who’ll actually vote in the Copeland by-election will have backed LEAVE

It’s a fallacy to presume that 60% of those who’ll actually vote in the Copeland by-election will have backed LEAVE

Comments 0 Comment

A smaller proportion of LEAVERS appear to be participating in current elections than at EURef Whenever any forthcoming UK election is being discussed at the moment an almost knee-jerk assumption is being made that the LEAVE-REMAIN split will be exactly the same as happened in the BREXIT referendum. We’ve seen it this week as we looked at the chances in the Greater Manchester Mayoralty as well as since yesterday at the intriguing Copeland by-election where the bookies have the Tories…

Read More Read More

If the LDs run a high-octane campaign in Copeland then LAB will be in trouble

If the LDs run a high-octane campaign in Copeland then LAB will be in trouble

Comments 0 Comment

The red team needs to select an unequivocal REMAINER Looking at the numbers it is very hard to see any party other than CON or LAB winning here. What would help LAB defend Copeland would either be the LDs deciding not to field a candidate or run a low key campaign. The latter might be difficult because the seat adjoins Tim Farron’s constituency where there are many activists and the party is fired up at the moment. Only last Thursday,…

Read More Read More

The Tories lose all 4 seats they were defending on the worst election night for the party since TMay became leader

The Tories lose all 4 seats they were defending on the worst election night for the party since TMay became leader

Comments 0 Comment

The LDs win 3 from CON on some huge swings Bovey (Teignbridge) result:LDEM: 43.9% (+20.3)CON: 33.1% (-4.2)IND: 8.9% (-1.5)LAB: 5.4% (-7.4)UKIP: 5.1% (+5.1)IND: 3.6% (+3.6) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) December 16, 2016 Chudleigh (Teignbridge):LDEM: 51.5% (+38.8)CON: 35.6% (+2.8)UKIP: 6.7% (+6.7)LAB: 6.1% (-8.8)Ind(s) and Grn didn't stand this time. — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) December 16, 2016 Blackdown (Taunton Deane) result:LDEM: 71.2% (+49.9)CON: 22.5% (-30.4)IND: 6.3% (+6.3)Other Ind and Grn didn't stand this time round. — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) December 15, 2016…

Read More Read More

Three CON defences in the South West amongst tonight’s 7 by-elections

Three CON defences in the South West amongst tonight’s 7 by-elections

Comments 0 Comment

Higher Croft (Lab defence) on Blackburn with Darwen Result of council at last election (2016): Labour 45, Conservatives 16, Liberal Democrats 3 (Labour majority of 26) Result of ward at last election (2016): Labour 874 (74%), Conservative 309 (26%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 28,522 (44%) LEAVE 36,799 (56%) on a turnout of 65% Candidates duly nominated: Ian Grimshaw (UKIP), Amy Johnson (Lab), Maureen McGarvey (Con) Leven, Kennoway and Largon (SNP defence) on Fife Result of council at last election (2012):…

Read More Read More