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Category: By elections

Betfair has Tories as 69% chance of taking Copeland – but remember Richmond Park

Betfair has Tories as 69% chance of taking Copeland – but remember Richmond Park

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But remember December’s Richmond Park betting Like BREXIT, Trump and Richmond Park the betting could be pointing us in the wrong direction It has become widely accepted since the EU referendum and the White House Race that the polls and the betting might not be as good a guide to political outcomes as some might hope. In fact looking at Richmond Park on Betfair 2 days beforehand the price of the eventual winner was even longer than Trump or Leave….

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No hard data, of course, on Stoke Central but two excellent pieces of journalism

No hard data, of course, on Stoke Central but two excellent pieces of journalism

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There’ve been two excellent pieces of journalism today on the Stoke Central by-election which both provide some insights and in broad terms are in the same area. The FT’s Sebastian Payne has the video report above and the excellent Stephen Bush in the New Statesman has stuck his neck out and is suggesting that LAB’s organisational strength will see it home. This is from the Bush piece: “..Ukip have a problem: finding their voters and getting them to the polling…

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David Herdson tries to makes sense of the Lib Dem local by-election victories

David Herdson tries to makes sense of the Lib Dem local by-election victories

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Why are their by-election results so out of line with their polling? Another week, another excellent set of local election results for the Lib Dems. Two gains from the Conservatives on big swings re-emphasised the extent of party’s success in the last year, following up on the even bigger and more even more unexpected gains in Sunderland and Rotherham. If we were being picky (and we should be), we might note that the other three by-elections on Thursday weren’t so…

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The Lib Dem local by-election band-wagon continues with two new gains – both from CON

The Lib Dem local by-election band-wagon continues with two new gains – both from CON

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It’s getting to the stage where double digit swings to the LDs are the norm Kingswood and Hazel Leys on Corby (Ind defence, elected as Labour, caused by disqualification of sitting member) Result: Labour 610 (65% +11%), Conservative 252 (27% +13%), Green Party 82 (9% -1%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 358 (38%) on a swing of 1% from Labour to Conservative Fairford North on Cotswold (Con defence, caused by resignation of sitting member) Result: Liberal Democrat 610 (68%…

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Why a progressive alliance in Stoke Central might be doomed

Why a progressive alliance in Stoke Central might be doomed

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2015 general election result under different voting systems by The @electoralreform Society https://t.co/Gyvm8kJbyt pic.twitter.com/iMKpYJA6hd — TSE (@TSEofPB) January 24, 2016 Electoral pacts may not help Labour and a progressive alliance Last weekend The Guardian published a story which said ‘Jeremy Corbyn’s team have informally explored the idea of collaborating with the Greens and Liberal Democrats in Stoke-on-Trent Central to keep Paul Nuttall, the Ukip leader, out of parliament. A senior figure in the Labour leader’s office has asked a go-between…

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Stoke Central’s down to whether BREXIT’s a big enough issue for ordinary voters to come out an give LAB a kicking

Stoke Central’s down to whether BREXIT’s a big enough issue for ordinary voters to come out an give LAB a kicking

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This analysis feels right The following is a great series of Tweet’s on Stoke Central by the FT’s Sebastian Payne https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/828723136191414273 https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/828723802053959680 https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/828724764776738816 https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/828725133326086145 https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/828726347434430469 https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/828726898729558016

Local By-Election Preview : February 2nd 2017

Local By-Election Preview : February 2nd 2017

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(Uttoxeter) Town on East Staffordshire (Con defence, sitting councillor resigns their seat) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 25, Labour 12, Liberal Democrat 1, United Kingdom Independence Party 1 (Conservative majority of 11) Result of ward at last election (2015): Emboldened denotes elected Conservatives 1,819, 1,543 (53%) Labour 1,138, 995 (33%) Green Party 501 (15%) EU Referendum Result: REMAIN 22,850 (37%) LEAVE 39,266 (63%) on a turnout of 74% Candidates duly nominated: Phillip Hudson (Con), Zdzislaw Krupski (Lab),…

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It’s blindingly obvious that Paul Nuttall is a scouser so why try to hide it?

It’s blindingly obvious that Paul Nuttall is a scouser so why try to hide it?

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I like this spoof English Heritage plaque which is doing the rounds in Stoke Central pic.twitter.com/tFJbR2xu9n — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2017 Now Nuttall risks being disqualified as an MEP The last time an elected MP was kicked out by the courts was LAB’s Phil Woolas in 2010. The notorious leaflets his team produced were ruled to be an illegal practice where there’s a maximum of 3 year disqualification from holding elected office. The Nuttall move relates directly to…

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