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Category: By elections

Impressions from Cumbria: Labour will win if they can turn their vote out

Impressions from Cumbria: Labour will win if they can turn their vote out

Copeland gives a good demonstration of why governments so rarely gain by-elections A wet and windy Saturday in Copeland is neither the time nor place to be wearing £250 brogues, as one volunteer reporting for duty in Egremont discovered (he was later spotted sporting rather less stylish but more functional off-white trainers). I mention this not as advice – it’s too late for that – nor to poke fun at the volunteer, who shall remain nameless (it wasn’t me!), but…

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Losses for the LDs and Tories in latest local elections plus preview of one more contest tonight

Losses for the LDs and Tories in latest local elections plus preview of one more contest tonight

Bollington on Cheshire East (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Bollington First 939 (51% +14%), Conservative 319 (17% -14%), Labour 239 (13% -8%), Liberal Democrat 198 (11% unchanged), Green 162 (9%, no candidate at last election) Bollington First GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 620 (33%) on a swing of 14% from Conservative to Bolington First St. Thomas on Dudley (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Labour 1,466 (61% +4%), United Kingdom Independence Party 653 (27% +5%),…

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Six times as many LD supporters say they’re concerned about BREXIT than UKIP voters

Six times as many LD supporters say they’re concerned about BREXIT than UKIP voters

This dynamic could have an impact next Thursday The above chart is based on data from the latest Ipsos MORI issues index and shows the party splits of those, unprompted, naming BREXIT as the main, or one of the the main, issues facing Britain at the moment. As can be seen there is a huge gap between the LDs, with 79% raising it, to UKIP voters where the figure is 15%. The Tory figure is highish well ahead of LAB….

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Tonight sees biggest round of local by-elections so far this year

Tonight sees biggest round of local by-elections so far this year

Vote aggregate of the year’s contests so far Bollington on Cheshire East (Con defence, resignation of sitting member) Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 53, Labour 16, Independents 3, Middlewich First 3, Liberal Democrats 2, Nantwich Independents 2, Ratepatyers 2, Bollington First 1 (Conservative majority of 24) Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected Bollington First 1,743, 1,380 (37%) Conservatives 1,435, 1,403 (31%) Labour 1,006 (21%) Liberal Democrats 511, 427 (11%) EU Referendum Result:…

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UKIP Stoke Central odds odds fall sharply following the unravelling of Nuttall’s Hillsborough claims

UKIP Stoke Central odds odds fall sharply following the unravelling of Nuttall’s Hillsborough claims

UKIP now down to 30% chance in Stoke Central on Betfair. Sharp fall following the unravelling of Nuttall's Hillsborough claims pic.twitter.com/M4LEyThH6S — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2017 Latest Paul Nuttall leaflet in Stoke Central pic.twitter.com/4nrsAzAj6q — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2017

The expectations game. How to judge the results in Stoke Central and Copeland

The expectations game. How to judge the results in Stoke Central and Copeland

As a consequence of Labour right wing MPs deciding to perform the Farewell Symphony through the medium of interpretive dance, political observers have two Parliamentary by-elections to brighten up a dank February. In normal circumstances these would both be easy Labour holds. Yet, following a cascade of money that has no doubt been prompted by Labour’s speleological exploration of new polling depths, the prices offered by the bookies suggest something very different. In Stoke Central, Labour are narrow favourites ahead…

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By-election round up

By-election round up

EXCLUSIVE: UKIP Leader Paul Nuttall admits his claims about losing close friends at #Hillsborough are false https://t.co/CtpCcAh7fA pic.twitter.com/jdzxz7C2aq — Hits Radio News | Liverpool & North West (@HitsLpoolNews) February 14, 2017 Suppose it's time for this again. pic.twitter.com/ylBdwnxGF7 — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) February 14, 2017 Here's an old UKIP leaflet in which Paul Nuttall claims to be a "former professional footballer". He isn't. https://t.co/DTTrbEykeG pic.twitter.com/36NC9rGmJE — Adam Bienkov (@AdamBienkov) February 14, 2017 Boost for Nuttall in Stoke Central. Nigel Farage…

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Why on earth did LAB select a candidate for the Stoke by-election without fully scrutinising his Twitter history?

Why on earth did LAB select a candidate for the Stoke by-election without fully scrutinising his Twitter history?

Now LAB's Stoke byelection candidate gets into trouble for offensive tweets aimed at women. Good for LDs? https://t.co/9JBN21pP0x — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 14, 2017 Snell’s controversial Tweets won’t cause switching to UKIP but could depress turnout In this day and age I had take it almost as read that before a candidate is selected for a high profile by-election defence then there is some serious examination of what he/she has published on social media to check wther there is…

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