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Category: By elections

The Great Unknown: A Betting History Of The Great British By-Election

The Great Unknown: A Betting History Of The Great British By-Election

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The modern era of political betting began in 1963 when Ladbrokes’ Ron Pollard opened up a book on the Conservative Party leadership contest. Shrewd punters could back the outsider Alec Douglas-Home at 16/1 over the hot 5/4 favourite Rab Butler….. In recent years we have seen political betting reach new heights, becoming an integral part of the political narrative itself. Figures as diverse as Jeremy Corbyn, Nigel Farage and Donald Trump have traded on their tag as “underdogs” to cause…

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The Lib Dems look likely to give it a go in Chesham and Amersham

The Lib Dems look likely to give it a go in Chesham and Amersham

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If you had asked the Lib Dems after the 2019 General Election about the sort of seat where they would like to fight a by-election they would have probably said somewhere that voted Remain, where they were in a clear second place and not too far from the M25. The last point is relevant because one of the prerequisites to pull off by-election surprises in the past is by being able to flood the area for several weeks with experienced…

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Size does matter in Hartlepool

Size does matter in Hartlepool

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Ever since the Hartlepool by election has been called I’ve vacillated between a Tory gain and a easy Labour hold. If Richard Tice and the Brexit Party hadn’t stood in this seat in 2019 then this would have been a Tory gain at the 2019 general election so that is what I drove my belief that this should be a Tory gain at the by election particularly once it was confirmed Richard Tice wasn’t standing, however it isn’t December 2019…

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Hartlepool: Labour still feels value in the Hartlepool betting

Hartlepool: Labour still feels value in the Hartlepool betting

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History suggests it is very hard for governments to gain by-elections Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer were both campaigning in Hartlepool yesterday. That may be because they both believe the by-election there to be very close or it may be that they wish to give that impression. It really shouldn’t be close. Governments hardly ever gain by-elections from the main opposition and when they do, there are usually exceptional circumstances. Tony Blair, despite his extraordinary poll leads through most of…

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Just 13 of the 31 local seats in Hartlepool on Westminster by-election day have Tory contenders

Just 13 of the 31 local seats in Hartlepool on Westminster by-election day have Tory contenders

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As we all know the Hartlepool Westminster by-election is taking place on May 6th – the same day as the locals throughout England and the Scottish and Welsh Parliament elections. Nominations have now closed for the locals and these show that of the 31 council seats up for election in Hartlepool three weeks on Thursday there are just 13 CON candidates. Now I don’t know what to read into that, and there maybe local factors at play, but it is…

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The Tories move to a 62% chance in the Hartlepool betting after a seat poll from Survation has the Tories 7% ahead

The Tories move to a 62% chance in the Hartlepool betting after a seat poll from Survation has the Tories 7% ahead

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The above chart shows the results of a Survation poll, commissioned by the Communications Workers Union, on the May 6th by election in Hartlepool. Like almost all single seat poll it has a small sample which increases the margin of error. It was conducted over the phone. The Mail”s headline on its coverage is Keir Starmer is on course for a humiliating defeat in Hartlepool by-election as new poll shows Tories have seven-point lead . The CWU was a strong…

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LAB’s betting gap over the Tories in Hartlepool now in double figures

LAB’s betting gap over the Tories in Hartlepool now in double figures

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The betdata.io chart of the Betfair market tells its own story. After the vacancy in the seat was triggered punters made LAB and the Tories almost level pegging. Now that edged has out and in the latest version of the chart the Tories are 11% behind in the betting. There was a poll from Focaldata that had LAB ahead. One thing that might make this harder to call is that the pandemic means no doorstep canvassing reports of which in…

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Things to look forward to in 2021: An exciting by-election

Things to look forward to in 2021: An exciting by-election

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Yorkshire, once again, may prove to be the most important place in the United Kingdom, if not the world. In May there’s a plethora of elections that will have profound implications for the United Kingdom, Scotland’s election is likely to be primus inter pares but the result with the most seismic changes could be the aftershocks of the election for Mayor of West Yorkshire. The 1/10 favourite is Labour’s Tracy Babin who has said if she wins she will resign…

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