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Category: By elections

Ahead of the May local elections Prof Michael Thrasher on the resources of The Elections Centre

Ahead of the May local elections Prof Michael Thrasher on the resources of The Elections Centre

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  Several recent up-dates and have been made to the Elections Centre website that should interest followers of Politicalbetting as we approach what appear to be an intriguing set of May local elections. The website also has two important additions – a new section covering council by-elections and another that hopefully will push the local elections database beyond the million candidate mark. The councils compositions calculator now covers the position up to and including last May’s local elections. There are other…

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After last week’s Tory loss of 5 local by-elections the blue team returns to its winning ways

After last week’s Tory loss of 5 local by-elections the blue team returns to its winning ways

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Two CON holds and a gain Stamford, St. George’s on South Kesteven (Con defence) Result: Con 309 (46% +13% on last time), Ind 174 (26%, no candidate last time), Lab 114 (17% +1% on last time), Lib Dem 68 (10%, no candidate last time), Green 13 (2% -10% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -19%. No Stamford Independent this time -19%) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 135 (20%) on a notional swing of 6.5% from Ind to…

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Tories lose all FIVE seats they were defending in party’s worst night of local elections since TMay became PM

Tories lose all FIVE seats they were defending in party’s worst night of local elections since TMay became PM

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But LAB only makes net gain of one Farnworth on Bolton (Lab defence) Result: Con 153 (6% -3% on last time), Lab 969 (38% -10% on last time), Lib Dem 23 (1% -2% on last time), UKIP 169 (7% -29% on last time), Green 18 (1% -3% on last time), Residents 1,204 (47%, no candidate last time) Residents GAIN from Labour with a majority of 235 (9%) on a notional swing of 28.5% from Lab to Residents (9.5% from UKIP…

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Lib Dems can do it on a drizzly Thursday in February – but what about on 3 May?

Lib Dems can do it on a drizzly Thursday in February – but what about on 3 May?

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By-election gains may well be yet another false dawn Up until last year, Sunderland had carved out for itself one, and only one, niche in British political life: it counted its votes at general elections faster than anywhere else. For six successive elections from 1992 to 2015, the southern Sunderland seat was the first to declare in the country. Other than that, the city was politically unremarkable: it’s returned two Labour MPs ever since the 1960s and the Red team…

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UK Special Elections Super Thursday 1 : February 15th 2018

UK Special Elections Super Thursday 1 : February 15th 2018

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Higham Ferrers on Northamptonshire (Con defence) Result: Con 1,414 (57% -3% on last time), Lab 557 (22% +3% on last time), Lib Dem 336 (13% +2% on last time), UKIP 109 (4% -6% on last time), Green 81 (3%, no candidate last time) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 857 (35%) on a swing of 3% from Con to Lab Higham Ferrers, Lancaster on East Northamptonshire (Con defence) Result: Con 611 (56%), Lib Dem 244 (22%), Lab 189 (17%), Green…

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Get ready for one of the biggest local by-election nights in years

Get ready for one of the biggest local by-election nights in years

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Big night of local elections in prospect. 14 seats with nearly 90k eligible to vote. Excellent here from @andrewteale https://t.co/AyLxTgrRGX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 15, 2018 Will tonight’s results reinforce polls view of a shift to CON? The 14 seats in almost all parts of the country feature 7 CON defences; 4 LAB ones + UKIP, SNP & a local Residents’s group a seat apiece. So we are like to get a relatively good picture. It is highly unusual…

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The LDs appear to be returning to their former role as NOTA – none of the above

The LDs appear to be returning to their former role as NOTA – none of the above

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Council by-election vote share changes with previous winning party: (That UKIP-LDM swing tho…) pic.twitter.com/ENb5KEutC4 — PolitiStatsUK (@PolitiStatsUK) February 10, 2018 I’ve just come across the above chart which shows an interesting picture of vote movements in council by-elections since GE17. Clearly the collapse of UKIP is having a big impact and in almost every segment of seats, based on the defending party, LAB, CON and the LDs have moved forward. What is striking is that in the former UKIP seats…

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Five CON holds & a gain + one LAB hold in this week’s local by-elections

Five CON holds & a gain + one LAB hold in this week’s local by-elections

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Hartside on Eden (Con defence) Result: Con 175 (53% -4% on last time) , Ind 98 (30% -13% on last time) , Green 58 (18%, no candidate last time) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 77 (13%) on a swing of 4.5% from Ind to Con Codsall on Staffordshire (Con defence) Result: Con 1,274 (68% -7% on last time), Green 329 (17% +6% on last time), Lab 283 (15% +1% on last time) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 945…

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