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Category: By elections

If LAB gets within 10% of its GE17 Lewisham vote it’ll be a vindication for Corbyn’s Brexit approach

If LAB gets within 10% of its GE17 Lewisham vote it’ll be a vindication for Corbyn’s Brexit approach

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A bigger drop would be problematical At the General Election the strongly anti-Brexit LAB MP, Heidi Alexander, came out with a share of 67.9% and a margin of 44.8% over the second place Conservatives in Lewisham East. The question, on which Ladbrokes have a market, is how the party will do on votes in the by-election two weeks on Thursday. The big fear of the Labour hierarchy was that the Lib Dems, who’ve done particularly well in Remain seat by-elections…

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Local By-Election Review : May 24th / 25th 2018

Local By-Election Review : May 24th / 25th 2018

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Aylsham on Broadland (Con defence) Result: Lib Dem 1,018 (46% +15% on last time), Con 865 (39% +7% on last time), Lab 328 (15% -7% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -15%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 153 (7%) on a swing of 4% from Con to Lib Dem) Cowfold, Shermanbury and West Grinstead on Horsham (Con defence) Result: Con 661 (68% -3% on last time), Lab 158 (16%, no candidate last time), Lib…

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By-election punters should check the form before risking their cash

By-election punters should check the form before risking their cash

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There have only been five Westminster by-elections which have been contested by the main parties since the Brexit referendum and the average party changes are shown in the chart above. As can be seen there have been much bigger movements in constituencies which voted Remain than those which voted Leave. In the former, both in CON held seats seats, the LDs did particularly well picking up one gain with the Tory vote sharply down. What we haven’t had is a…

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Pulpstar says the Tories look value at 13-8 in the Lewisham match bet

Pulpstar says the Tories look value at 13-8 in the Lewisham match bet

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Anyone for a couple of Lewisham East match bets? #LewishamEastByElection UKIP 1/2 vs For Britain 6/4Lib Dems 4/7 vs Tories 13/10 pic.twitter.com/eVz4ICdRIz — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) May 22, 2018 The by-election in Lewisham East is attracting a lot of attention on twitter for Labour’s woes in candidate selection, and also some unfortunate tweets by the CLP chair dug up by Owen Jones. How much attention will the average voter there pay to this ? Very little is the runaway favourite…

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A sign of LAB confidence in Lewisham East: Local party chief gets sacked days before the postals go out

A sign of LAB confidence in Lewisham East: Local party chief gets sacked days before the postals go out

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Given that the outgoing MP, Heidi Alexander, secured 69% of the vote at GE2017 it has been very hard to predict anything other than a Labour hold. That was why, in the eyes of many, the party’s selection battle was the real fight. That was completed on Saturday when the local party chose Lewisham’s, deputy mayor ahead of the Momentum backed candidate as well as the one supported by Unite – an outcome that’s been seen as a bit of…

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Local By-Election Review : May 17th 2018

Local By-Election Review : May 17th 2018

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Skerton West on Lancaster (Lab defence) Result: Lab 587 (58% +21% on last time), Con 279 (27% +1% on last time), Lib Dem 95 (9%, Green 59 (6% -3% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -20%, No Ind candidate this time -7%) Labour HOLD with a majority of 308 (31%) on a swing of 10% from Con to Lab University and Scotsforth Rural on Lancaster (Lab and Green defence) Result: Emboldened denotes elected Labour 518, 423 (48% +13%…

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The Buckingham constituency where there must be a high chance of a by-election within 18 months

The Buckingham constituency where there must be a high chance of a by-election within 18 months

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There’s not been a “normal” election here since GE2005 One of the intriguing facets of the current speculation over the Speaker, John Bercow, is that there could be a by-election within the next year and a half in the Buckingham parliamentary constituency. There were reports at the weekend that Mr Bercow has indicated to friends that he plans to stand down in 2019 though there could be something earlier if the pressure on him continues. If he does step aside…

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Betting on Labour’s vote share in the the Lewisham East by election

Betting on Labour’s vote share in the the Lewisham East by election

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Backing Labour to get over 60% seems like value. Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s share of the vote in the Lewisham East by election where Heidi Alexander polled 67.9% last year. It is clear that the Lib Dems are going make the focus of the by election Labour’s position(s) on Brexit but I’m not sure that’ll have much of an impact. So far Corbyn has managed to appear all things to all people when it comes to the…

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