Did the betting markets fail in Chesham & Amersham and Batley & Spen? Two big by-election shocks in the space of two weeks. Did the pundits and betting markets underestimate the eventual winners as the Conservatives failed to win both Chesham & Amersham and Batley & Spen? First, an explanation of what I mean by betting markets. The days of only ‘bookies’ deciding what the odds should be are long gone. The odds you’ll see on exchanges like Smarkets are the result…
After LAB lost Hartlepool and their lacklustre performance in this year’s locals the next two electoral tests also look problematical for Keir Starmer and his party. Next up on June 17th is the Chesham and Amersham by-election when Labour vote is likely to be squeezed by the LDs who came a second last time with LAB on just 12.9% of the vote. With Davey’s party throwing everything at the constituency the LAB vote is likely to be squeezed hard and…
This is, of course, Jo Cox’s former seat where a vacancy has occurred because the sitting LAB MP has resigned following her election as Mayor of West Yorkshire. In the betting the Tories are rated as a 67% chance to take the seat
Almost unnoticed last weekend amid the spectacular Tory win in Hartlepool, the constitution-shaking SNP-led victory in Scotland or the dismal outcome for Labour – compounded by a botched reshuffle – another party did very well: the Greens. Across the country, the thin Green tide advanced. Highlights included:– An increase in MSPs and pushing the Lib Dems into a clear fifth in Scotland;– Finishing fourth in Wales by vote – though no MSs, unlike the Lib Dems, who polled fewer votes;–…
Should this go down as a LAB miss? Overnight we have had the result of the Airdrie and Shotts by-election which was held following the resignation of the former SNP MP to run for the same seat at last week’s election for the Scottish parliament. The general assumption was that this was always going to be an SNP hold and it has attracted little attention. The big interest comes in the actual result in the Wikipedia table above. As can be…
TSE
There’s a good by James Johnson in the Times on why the likely CON victory tonight in Hartlepool won’t be as dramatic as it sounds. He argues: …the constituency has a uniquely large Brexit Party vote from 2019. Looking just at seats where the Conservatives were in second place, this was the largest in the country — and the third-largest overall. It is one of only five of 650 seats where the Brexit Party share was above 20 per cent. …That…
If punters have got this right then the Tories are heading for a sensational victory in the Hartlepool by-election on Thursday. The big driver today has been the second Survation constituency poll on Hartlepool showing an even wider gap than was reported four weeks ago. Then the Tories had a 7% lead. In the latest small sample poll, which was carried out from April 23rd to 29th, that is now 17%. The figures are with changes on the general election:…