Prospect The biggest move has been from the 2016 non voters to Remain The above chart, by professor John Curtice, is in the latest edition of Prospect magazine and is designed to show how opinion on Brexit has moved on since the referendum period As can be seen by a whisker more Leave voters than Remain ones have now switched. The biggest move has been amongst those who didn’t vote in 2016. A significant proportion of this group will be…
Get ready for more of this in the next 13 months I’m sure that this week’s tour of Britain by the anti Brexit bus, featured above, will bring some comfort to those who believe that leaving the EU is wrong and want to stop it. The Leave bus during the run up to June 23rd 2016 become iconic and clearly it is quite smart to use the same approach and visual identity in this campaign. It is also a reminder…
Looking beyond March 29 2019 Earlier this week I wrote about the likelihood that Britain will leave the EU on the current scheduled date of 29 March 2019. My logic was simple: the timetable is preset, adjusting it requires the consent of a lot of different parties and there is no sign yet that many people in Britain have changed their minds. You can still back that proposition at 5/4 on Betfair and it still looks to me to be…
Twelve month chart from Betfata.io Everyday for months, it seems, the news has been dominated by developments over Brexit and tinight, of course, we have the letter from 62 conservative MPs saying to Theresa May that they want a hard exit. But the Westminster numbers remain very tight and it is hard to come to any definitive conclusion over what form of Brexit will be agreed or whether something else might come along to put a total spanner into the…
Is it going to be March 29 next year? Can you hear it? That is the sound of inevitability. Shambolic though the government’s preparations have been for Brexit, failing to explain its proposals to the public, the EU or even itself, the time to exit continues to approach. When the government gave notice under Article 50, a two year timetable was set in motion. That will expire at 11pm (GMT) on Friday 29 March 2019. Nothing the government has done…
Some international boundaries are easy to understand. The Pyrenees form a natural frontier between Spain and France. The Kattegat conveniently separates Sweden and Denmark. While in the past each pair of countries has seen their border shift over time, the current resting place looks very natural. The boundary between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland does not come in that category. There are few obvious natural boundaries along the route. Donegal is almost cut off from the rest of…
Britain's interest in Europe appears to rise (and fall) when the Conservatives are in (and out) of government. @ipsosmori pic.twitter.com/DKlfcFIepI — Alistair McQueen (@HelloMcQueen) February 14, 2018 Polls show that concerns about Europe/EU are linked to whether the Tories are in power or not I like the above chart which makes a strong point that the EU becomes an issue amongst voters when the Tories are in power. The data comes from the Ipsos-MORI Issues Index in which those sampled…
Above in the chart is a new BMG poll which seeks to ascertain the attitudes of Leave voters to negative aspects of Brexit. It was commissioned by Left Foot Forward. The problem here, of course, is that it is all totally hypothetical. Such things were said during the referendum campaign itself and Leaver voters, clearly, were not taken aback then. So why should we be surprised when more than a year before Brexit those who voted that way should feel…