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Category: BREXIT

Mrs. May survives the day getting cabinet backing for the deal and there’s been no Vote of Confidence move

Mrs. May survives the day getting cabinet backing for the deal and there’s been no Vote of Confidence move

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On Betfair the money goes on a 2018 TMay exit Betdata.io Well all those who were predicting that today there would be a cabinet rebellion on the Brexit deal and a possible vote of no confidence move against Mrs May have been proved wrong. Yet again the most resilient leader of recent times continues to defy political gravity. The next stage its for this to go to the House of Commons and that might not be as easy as today…

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Good news for TMay: Montgomerie’s backing suggests that the deal has a better chance of being agreed

Good news for TMay: Montgomerie’s backing suggests that the deal has a better chance of being agreed

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Founder of ConHome, @montie backs the deal. https://t.co/3T70zwhIoA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 14, 2018 That the founder ConHome, Tim Montgomerie, has Tweeted that he’s backing the deal suggests that this is going to be less of a struggle for TMay than many thought. A couple of years ago Newsnight described him as “the most famous conservative who is not an MP” and there’s little doubt that he still has a lot of influence particularly as he as always been…

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2019 becomes favourite for year of next general election as punters ponder the EU deal

2019 becomes favourite for year of next general election as punters ponder the EU deal

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After all the waiting this is a massive day for Theresa May and for the country’s relationship with Europe. What I find amazing is the number of MPs and other commentators, declaring that this is a bad deal and they haven’t even seen the document yet. Sobeit. At the end of the day the big question will be how many MPs will be ready to put their heads above the parapet and vote for no deal with all that that…

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The Brexit deal is being put to the Cabinet one by one

The Brexit deal is being put to the Cabinet one by one

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But what are the chances of success? So the brexit process moves a step forward with a broad agreement that Theresa May now has to sell to her cabinet, then her party, and then the House of Commons. Each of these hurdles looks insurmountable but then Theresa May has got over many obstacles in the 18 months since she lost the party its majority and is determined enough to push this as hard as she is able. If Brexiteers like…

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As the Brexit “deal” reaches another critical week the public are still totally split

As the Brexit “deal” reaches another critical week the public are still totally split

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What is Corbyn’s LAB going to do? With things apparently coming to the head with the EU withdrawal negotiations the above shows the latest YouGov tracker on how voters think broken down into what they did at the referendum and their current voting intention. This is the first time for months that this has been published on PB partly because the numbers almost never change or only very by very small amounts. As can be seen the main figure continues…

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JoJo’s resignation pushes the odds on a 2019 referendum to 29%

JoJo’s resignation pushes the odds on a 2019 referendum to 29%

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When transport minister and brother of BoJo, Jo Johnson, quit as transport minister on Friday calling for a second referendum there was an uptick on the Betfair betting market that one would take place before the end of 2019. It moved from about a 22% chance to a 29% chance which is where it remains at the moment. I’ve been looking at this market for some time and the odds have never been sufficiently attractive either way to tempt me….

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Brexit: Not the End. Not the Beginning of the End. Perhaps, the End of the Beginning.

Brexit: Not the End. Not the Beginning of the End. Perhaps, the End of the Beginning.

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The UK’s relationship with the EU has never been cosy, and, as you may have noticed, it’s recently become incredibly contentious. Worse still, and regardless of what happens next, this is going to dominate politics in the UK for decades. The reason is simple. This is a matter of identity. Some fear being governed by foreigners, the nation losing control of its own democratic destiny. Some feel they’re having their rights taken away against their will. How do you bridge…

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April 2019: month of chaos

April 2019: month of chaos

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A No Deal Brexit is now highly likely in March Nothing has changed: words that might well form Theresa May’s epitaph. Unfortunately for her, unless something does, that epitaph will be needed sooner rather than later. With less than five months until the Brexit deadline, both the parliamentary maths and the European diplomacy remain resolutely irresoluble. Nothing has changed. Some might argue that’s a favourable interpretation; that Jo Johnson’s resignation yesterday indicated the maths are getting worse for the PM…

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