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Loose change. The MPs who Theresa May needs to get on board

Loose change. The MPs who Theresa May needs to get on board

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NEW: Theresa May's allies privately concede they are on course to lose the meaningful vote due 12 days from now. Senior Tories are gaming a second vote or another delay. Downing Street insider: “If we have to have the vote 30 times, we will" https://t.co/1VcGLtfnJl — Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) January 3, 2019 Senior ministers are urging May to set a departure date soon after March 29th to convince rebels a new leader can take over the next stage of Brexit…

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Now in Scotland we are getting threats of de-selection for pro-Brexit CON MPs

Now in Scotland we are getting threats of de-selection for pro-Brexit CON MPs

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The start of trend as we get closer? The paper, the National, it should be pointed out is a strong supporter of the SNP but having said that this does raise a real issue in the one part of the UK where the Tories had real success at GE2017. Also today we’ve had this from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus which looks grim for LAB north of the border. As I’ve said repeatedly LAB has to recover in Scotland if it…

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Corbyn’s flat rejection of a second referendum sees the betting chances of one happening drop to 32%

Corbyn’s flat rejection of a second referendum sees the betting chances of one happening drop to 32%

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The big Brexit political betting movement has been a sharp fall in the betting chances of a second referendum taking place during 2019. The Betfair exchange odds plunged from nearly 40% to just 26% at about 10pm last night. Since then there’s been something of a recovery but at 32.5% as I write is still considerably lower than what it was. The Corbyn/Milne gang’s resistance in the face of strong evidence a about how party members view the issue is…

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2019 opens with a bang and some leavers are getting aerated about the fireworks

2019 opens with a bang and some leavers are getting aerated about the fireworks

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Remainer partisanship re Sadiq Khan's council-tax-funded propaganda is a strong start to the new year pic.twitter.com/WRSxDX3jpT — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) January 1, 2019 Are you bloody kidding me? You put the EU flag on the London Eye on New Year’s Eve? WTAF? https://t.co/PNvWe7OhXy — Julia Hartley-Brewer (@JuliaHB1) January 1, 2019 There’s going to be a lot more of this before March 29th Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

PB 2018 betting review: Brexit – whether it will happen on time and the chances of a second referendum

PB 2018 betting review: Brexit – whether it will happen on time and the chances of a second referendum

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With brexit being just about the only political story in the UK during 2018 it is inevitable that there has been a lot of betting attention. In the charts above I feature two markets. First whether Britain will actually leave the EU as planned on March 29th and second on the chances of a second referendum. As can be seen in the top chart punters saw Brexit not happening on the due date as favourite till the final week in…

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After Thursday’s Alastair Meeks 2019 predictions David Herdson takes a very different view of what the New Year will bring

After Thursday’s Alastair Meeks 2019 predictions David Herdson takes a very different view of what the New Year will bring

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Get ready for the most dramatic year in UK politics for decades 2018 was boring, wasn’t it? No leadership change among the three main parties for the first time in four years, only the third year this decade without a general election or a major referendum, and not even the distraction of a big foreign election (the best on offer was the Italian election, which also produced the only change among the G7 leaders). Except of course it wasn’t. True,…

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With just five days to go the PB/Alastair Meeks predictions for 2019

With just five days to go the PB/Alastair Meeks predictions for 2019

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Rarely has British politics faced such binary questions: Remain or Leave? Deal or no deal? Referendum or no referendum? What kind of a fool is going to make predictions about the coming year? Let me raise my hand. In truth, the uncertainties we face at the beginning of 2019 are if anything easier to deal with than usual. What derail most predictions are the unknown unknowns. The problems for predicting 2019 look more likely to be known unknowns – who…

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