The big Brexit political betting movement has been a sharp fall in the betting chances of a second referendum taking place during 2019. The Betfair exchange odds plunged from nearly 40% to just 26% at about 10pm last night. Since then there’s been something of a recovery but at 32.5% as I write is still considerably lower than what it was.
The Corbyn/Milne gang’s resistance in the face of strong evidence a about how party members view the issue is very much a gamble and in other parties being so out of line from the membership on the key issue of the moment would be a threat to a leader’s position.
It says a lot about the hold he has on the party that Corbyn obviously feels he can shrug this off without paying a political price and my guess is that he is probably right in the short term at least.
So now we move into the unknown.It is hard to predict what’s the next week is going to bring as Mrs. May’s deal comes back to MPs for their approval.
If all this does lead to a 2019 General Election then Corbyn’s LAB might find that his outright opposition to a second referendum isn’t popular with many of the party’s GE17 voters.