Live Betfair exchange odds monitoring from Betdata.io On Betfair punters rate it a 61% chance that 310-319 MPs will vote FOR tonight's confidence motion. It's a 97% chance that the government will survive — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2019 Tweet
The winning margin will set the baseline for future challenges The outcome of this afternoon’s confidence vote in HMG is not really in doubt following the assurances made last night by Moggsy and representatives of the DUP that they would be backing the government. The real interest will be the size of the winning margin because it will almost certainly represent the maximum for both those for and against and looks like being the baseline for future such votes in…
To my mind the most significant thing to come out of the catastrophic defeat for the government on its Brexit deal was the statement by Theresa May that she’ll look to consulting with other parties. I just wonder if that is paving the way for a second referendum. Clearly the other main parties, LAB after its likely confidence vote failure tomorrow, the SNP, the LDS, PC and the Green are all committed to a second vote. It would be politically…
Wikipedia Let’s not forget either the DUP’s popularity within the province One of the issues with the politics Northern Ireland is that the Republican party, Sinn Fein, refuses to take up its seven seats at Westminster. This means that of the 18 constituencies in the Province seven do not have active MPs. It also means that the only Westminster representation comes from a party that got just 36% of the vote there in June 2017. This makes the parliamentary representation…
Like many I’ve often been irritated by John Bercow particularly at the lengthy interjections he likes to make at PMQs which can appear like grandstanding. It is said that his approach to the role is anti-Tory, a view I don’t hold. If he appears that way it is down to the fact that for the vast majority of his time in the job the Tories have been in power and inevitably the executive hates anything that impedes their actions. Basically…
Chart from Betdata.io showing trend on what is currently the busiest political market on the Betfair Exchange. The general view is that TMay is heading for a defeat tomorrow night when MPs are at last given a chance to vote on the deal. Assuming that happens she then has three days to come back to the house with another proposal. Quite how that shapes up is hard to read but punters are gambling that the UK won’t be leaving on…
(Constituencies coded A had a Leave vote of over 60%, those coded B had a Leave vote of over 50%, those coded C had a Leave vote over 40% and those coded D had a Leave vote of less than 40%. ) Everyone loves talking about the rebel MPs who have put Theresa May in double trouble. There are numerous lists floating around. Some list all the MPs who have expressed reservations about Chequers or the deal. Some seek to look…
When you stop and think about it, voting is a very low information form of communication. We get nothing about the certainty of the voter’s view, nothing about the enthusiasm of the voter, nothing about the considerations that led the voter to that view. All we get is a single recorded choice. As a result, every so often a political truth is so stark staring obvious, so central to British politics, that it is almost entirely missed. We are at…