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Category: BREXIT

Ten minisisters ready to tell TMay that they’ll resign unless there’s a deal within a fortnight

Ten minisisters ready to tell TMay that they’ll resign unless there’s a deal within a fortnight

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EXCLUSIVE Remain ministers said PM must commit to securing Brexit deal within 2 weeks if she is to avoid resignations over no deal during conference call TONIGHT A dozen ministers on call including Amber Rudd, Greg Clark, David Gauke & Caroline Nokes https://t.co/J7JP22x1LO — Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) January 27, 2019 The pressure’s now coming from those who backed remain The Telegraph is reporting details of at telephone conference call earlier this evening by about a dozen ministers who are pro-European….

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Disastrously successful. The EU’s Brexit negotiation

Disastrously successful. The EU’s Brexit negotiation

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hn1VxaMEjRU I’m going to go all Godwin on you. Sorry. When people talk about the causes of World War Two, they often mention how Hitler was emboldened by his early success remilitarising the Rhineland without any real consequence, showing that the Treaty of Versailles was violable. This was not, however, the first occasion on which the settlement of the First World War was set aside by the losers. At 100 years’ distance, Germany was the loser of the First World…

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Coming to a Brexit near you: Rejoin

Coming to a Brexit near you: Rejoin

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Britain leaving the EU will close a chapter, not the book Whether the UK leaves the EU is still just about a question of ‘if’ as well as (or instead of) ‘when’, although of course ‘if’, being open-ended, isn’t of itself very meaningful. Suffice to say that the not-very-liquid Betfair market on Brexit date has ‘not before 2022’ at 4.2 – or, in percentage terms, a 24% chance. This is now slightly shorter than the 4.4 best price on 2019Q1:…

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Chancellor Hammond is right: extending the Article 50 deadline won’t produce a Brexit compromise

Chancellor Hammond is right: extending the Article 50 deadline won’t produce a Brexit compromise

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Hammond this morning on Bloomberg says "there is clearly no majority in Parliament" for a 2nd referendum. Says delaying article 50 would remove the "ticking clock"; "If you take that away, people will keep promoting their preferred outcome rather than seeking compromise" — Tamara Cohen (@tamcohen) January 25, 2019 And why for some No deal is so appealing Good by @TomKibasi from Tues on why no-deal Brexit is so attractive https://t.co/f1OLa7znVd pic.twitter.com/8izswk4wNN — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) January 25, 2019 Mike…

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Corbyn’s reported negativity on a second referendum sends the betting odds down to a 29% chance

Corbyn’s reported negativity on a second referendum sends the betting odds down to a 29% chance

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Brexit betting round-up Betting continues to be running at a high level on all aspects relating to Brexit. Mostly of the markets have stayed pretty consistent over the past few days days. The only one to buck this trend has been the second referendum betting. The chart shows how this is shifted down and this and, undoubtedly, has been affected by the latest reported positioning of Mr Corbyn about what Labour would or would not do. However much the polls…

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Meanwhile in other news

Meanwhile in other news

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More than 175,000 jobs will be lost from struggling high street stores over the next year as the boom in internet shopping hastens their decline, researchers predict https://t.co/NvhwLmDTW3 — The Times and The Sunday Times (@thetimes) January 22, 2019 What’s happening on the High Street & other developments This month, the newspapers, television, radio and social media have been consumed by Brexit. You might have noticed. In other news, Marks & Spencer have announced the closure of another 17 branches….

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New polling finds that leaving the EU with the deal is the least unpopular of the options facing the UK

New polling finds that leaving the EU with the deal is the least unpopular of the options facing the UK

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What’s least unpopular might be the way forward Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics and a regular guest on the PB/PollingMatters podcast has just produced the above survey for Bloomberg which finds that of the main options facing the UK leaving with the deal has the highest level of net acceptability. My chart above is based on his data. He notes: “Most polling on the Theresa May’s Brexit deal until now has focussed on which outcome to the process the…

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With “cabinet resignations” in the air who is going to be first to quit

With “cabinet resignations” in the air who is going to be first to quit

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TMay’s dogged resolve could lead to more exits We are going through turbulent times and there’s little doubt that the next few weeks as we edge closer to March 29th are going to see dramatic developments which are going to be hard to predict. The main story in the Times this morning is that possibly up to 40 ministers could resign if CON MPs are banned from voting on plans to stop a no-deal Brexit. That such threats should be…

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