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Category: BREXIT

If this election follows previous ones then 10m more women will vote than men

If this election follows previous ones then 10m more women will vote than men

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And that adds to Trump’s problems One of the features of this election which has been repeatedly observed is how poorly Trump is doing with women voters particularly those with college degrees. Four years ago that segment was mostly for Trump now its switched to Biden. Above is part of the demographic breakdown in this week’s NYT/Siena poll which shows the scale of the gender gap in this election. As can be observed Trump has a 6% lead amongst men…

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If Florida flips, as the polls are suggesting, then Trump is doomed

If Florida flips, as the polls are suggesting, then Trump is doomed

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Florida with its 29 electoral votes has been looking pretty good for Biden and the current FiveThirtyEight average has Biden 3.5% ahead. What makes this interesting from a betting perspective is that as I write Trump and Biden are running at fifty-fifty on the Betfair exchange. Essentially those betting on Trump at this price are gambling that the polls are wrong. Given that the last time Trump was ahead in the polling average was back in March this is what…

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Trump making surprise recovery in the WH2020 betting even though most pollsters have double digit Biden leads

Trump making surprise recovery in the WH2020 betting even though most pollsters have double digit Biden leads

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If you have been following WH2020 polling you’ll be aware that the numbers are still very much with Biden at both a national and a state level. But this is not being reflected in the current betting. What is the biggest political gambling event of all time as is shown in the Smarkets chart above and as can be seen the gap is closing. Quite what is driving this is hard to say but I think Paul Krishnamurty’s explanation in…

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And the Answers Are ….? The circuit breaker proposal

And the Answers Are ….? The circuit breaker proposal

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“Circuit breaker”, “Lockdown 2”, “Tier 3 restrictions” – there’s no end to the descriptions being given to the steps being proposed by politicians in all 4 corners of the kingdom to the steps they want taken to stop the virus spreading further. So, presumably, they have clear answers to the following questions:- How Long For? The last lockdown was initially stated to be for 3 weeks. It ended up nearer 4 months and has yet to be lifted for some…

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Hollow Men – the sidelining of parliament during the biggest health/economic crisis in modern times

Hollow Men – the sidelining of parliament during the biggest health/economic crisis in modern times

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In the film “Mrs Brown” there is a scene in Parliament where MPs are passing around a Tomahawk cartoon showing an empty throne captioned “Where is Britannia?” It’s a reference to widowed Queen Victoria’s long self-imposed isolation and its effect on good governance and support for the monarchy. A similar criticism could be made now – not of her great-great-grand-daughter – but of Parliament. During the biggest combined health and economic crisis of recent times, where is Parliament? Some Tory…

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How the polls moved since last week’s first debate and Trump contracting COVID-19

How the polls moved since last week’s first debate and Trump contracting COVID-19

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In terms of the national polls Trump has taken a big hit over the past few days in the aftermath of his much criticised debate performance and his reaction to catching COVID-19. There’s a lot of discussion going on about comparing current polling with what happened at WH2020 when Trump was firs elected. I’d argue that a better comparison is the polling for the 2018 midterms – Trump’s first electoral test. The main thing that characterises that election was the…

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New polling finds 44% prepared to pay more tax to cover costs of COVID19

New polling finds 44% prepared to pay more tax to cover costs of COVID19

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A wealth tax the most favoured way Given the huge extra government spending to deal with COVID19 and cover things like the billions which have gone on the test and trace system Ipsos-MORI finds 44% saying they are ready to pay more. But when it comes to what form of new taxation the preferred choice is a wealth tax that doesn’t exist at the moment. When asked who should pay a new wealth tax, the most popular is those with…

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