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Category: BREXIT

TMay’s message that she’s prepared to countenance a no deal Brexit on March 29th seems to be getting through to punters

TMay’s message that she’s prepared to countenance a no deal Brexit on March 29th seems to be getting through to punters

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange It’s moved from a 12.8% chance to a 26% one in just three weeks Given what we know about TMay and how unbending she is I’m becoming increasingly convinced that when the time runs out at 11pm on March 29th the UK will in fact be leaving the EU. She’s going to the wire and the message to MPs of all parties is that if the deal is not approved by then…

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The search for a definition of BINO – “Brexit in Name Only”

The search for a definition of BINO – “Brexit in Name Only”

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One of the most controversial terms in the current UK political climate is BINO – Brexit in Name only. Its usage derives from a previous US election where Republicans not deemed to be ideologically pure were dismissed as RINOs – Republican in Name Only. To the hardline anti-EUer BINO is a way categorising any move not thought to be pure enough as being a sell-out. To the hardline Remainers it raises the question of “what the hell is the point?”….

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Whilst TMay is said to be contemplating a no deal Brexit LAB’s once again embroiled in an anti semitism row

Whilst TMay is said to be contemplating a no deal Brexit LAB’s once again embroiled in an anti semitism row

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Theresa May is now seriously contemplating a no-deal Brexit. Here's the story of why:https://t.co/WFDKKd60Ql — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) February 11, 2019 Labour MPs thought new data on anti-semitism would help clear up the problem. After tonight's PLP, many left 'depressed' or angry, or both. Full report:https://t.co/zbmj7eEz22 — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) February 11, 2019 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The party whose leader has the worst LOTO ratings on record refuses to accept an anti-Brexit petition

The party whose leader has the worst LOTO ratings on record refuses to accept an anti-Brexit petition

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https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1094950712134590466 The Corbyn/Milne ambivalence with be remembered A hour or so ago the anti-Brexit People’s Vote campaign sought to hand in a petition about the leadership’s stance at the LAB party HQ. What happened and filmed by the media might not, with the passage of time, look smart. Simply to refuse it doesn’t look good especially on a day when it has been revealed that Corbyn’s letter to TMay on the party’s approach forgot. to threaten a referendum. This is…

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Learning from history

Learning from history

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It is hard – and often painful – to see ourselves as others see us. Countries don’t face annual 360° appraisals. It is perhaps a back-handed compliment that Britain has been important enough to be subject to the scrutiny of others.  Famously, in 1962 Dean Acheson commented that “Great Britain has lost an Empire and has not yet found a role.” Twitter was not around then but the speech, with its acute eye for Britain’s confusion about its role in world…

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Crossing the Rubicon

Crossing the Rubicon

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I am looking forward to meeting @SteveBarclay in Brussels on Mon evening. I will listen to how the UK sees the way through. The EU will not reopen the Withdrawal Agreement. But I will reaffirm our openness to rework the Political Declaration in full respect of #EUCO guidelines. — Michel Barnier (@MichelBarnier) February 8, 2019 For reasons I need not go into now, a few years ago I had occasion to go on a stag weekend to Barmouth in west…

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Punters could still be under-rating the chances of No Deal

Punters could still be under-rating the chances of No Deal

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange The route to any other outcome is fraught with difficulties You might think that with 94% of the time between the referendum and the scheduled Brexit Day now gone, we’d have some idea as to when and how Britain will be leaving the EU. Arguments about conceptual arrangements would have been better had in 2016 rather than in the final weeks. Instead, even the question as to whether the country will leave…

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In terms of influence on major policy developments Corbyn today is surely the most powerful opposition leader in decades

In terms of influence on major policy developments Corbyn today is surely the most powerful opposition leader in decades

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It’s possible the UK could end up with a Labour Brexit To me the biggest development of the day was the response by Donald Tusk to the Labour proposal for Brexit. The details envisage a softer brexit then Theresa May’s plan but because of the numbers in the Commons there’s a good chance that this is what could actually be agreed. If so that will be remarkable and something and it’s almost without precedent. Labour could claim that this was…

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