This morning’s front pages after the night before
On Betfair it’s a 54% chance that she’ll be out in 2019 Q2 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Viewcode on the chronicle of a bet foretold
It is 11pm on March 21st 2019 as I write this. Press releases from EUCO indicate that an unconditional extension is granted to the UK, rendering my bet on departing the EU on March 29th lost. It may be instructive therefore to examine the bet: its aim, placement, and implications. THE MOTIVE I bet from a variety of motives. There is the desire to know the world and measure myself against it, to commit to a prediction, simple greed, and…
The “Very British Populism” of Theresa May
May is (at least at the time of writing) our first populist PM. Whaaaat?!?!? A woman about whom it might be said that far from lighting up a room when she enters it, she trails gloom behind her, a populist? She has no charisma, no wit, no ability to charm or work a crowd, no followers, no chanting fans. She cannot speak – sometimes literally. She asserts, she repeats, she reprimands. She cannot persuade. In what sense then is she…
The indicative votes are the right question at the wrong time
Unless a WA is agreed, they could all be pointless Brexit means Brexit, Theresa May once said. Even at the time, the slogan was widely derided as meaningless and nebulous – though politically, there’s value in something that’s all things to all people. Indeed, Labour is engaging in an almost identical exercise at the moment, where almost nothing is ruled out but very little is explicitly ruled in: everything remains on the table, presumably in the hope that someone else…
As we approach the slightly later than planned day of reckoning
Has Britain finally reached a decision point? Still the outcome seems in doubt. Many others are writing about what comes next. But how did we get here? Failure is an orphan and no one is taking credit for the current mess. There is plenty of blame to go round though and we can dole out lavish helpings. First of all, we should note that it wasn’t inevitable that there would be a decision point now. No attempt was made by…
At this critical time a look at matters of Confidence in the political arena
In both senses of the word, confidence lies at the heart of politics. It is certainly the preference of this habitual voyeur of Westminster life. Yet the concept has been distorted beyond recognition by the stresses of Brexit. Brexit positions cut across most parties, and MPs are clearly torn between their loyalties to their party, their electorate, their local members, the nation, the referendum result, and their consciences. But it is hard not to be cynical about how a number…
The betting chances of Commons agreeing deal before March 30th move up sharply to 43%
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange The main betting mover on another day of high drama on brexit has been on the when will the Commons pass a brexit vote market. Before PMQs this was rated as a 26.8% chance and then with what Theresa May said and other indications this has now gone to 43%. There seems to be increasing confidence that Theresa May’s long term strategy of getting her deal because the alternatives are worse through…
Britain has deceived itself about the EU for decades and is doing so again
“Oh what a tangled web we weave. When first we practice to deceive.” Britain has deceived itself about the EU for decades. A list of all its self-deceptions would be interminable but here are some:- The Common Market will never get off the ground / be important. We can set up or belong to a rival organisation. We don’t need to belong. We do need to belong and they will be desperate to have us. We are joining a market…