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Category: BREXIT

The Euro elections are all about vote shares not how many MEPs each party secures

The Euro elections are all about vote shares not how many MEPs each party secures

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Will the aggregate votes of the Brexit parties exceed those that oppose it? Lots of talk today about the various lists that the parties are putting up for the unexpected euro elections on May 23rd. To remind ourselves in this election voters put a cross by a party name in a particular region and their votes are allocated according to a complex system that seeks to proportionately distribute the numbers of MEPs. But what matters is surely, in the current context,…

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On healthcare Farage, Trump’s biggest British cheerleader, is vulnerable

On healthcare Farage, Trump’s biggest British cheerleader, is vulnerable

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Those opposed the Brexit party should change the subject to the NHS Last November Donald Trump took a beating in the midterm elections when his opponents, the Democrats, were able to make his threats to undermine what public health system there is in the United States into an issue. This is an approach that will be used at WH2020 for once something has become an an entitlement then it is exceedingly difficult and politically dangerous to take it away. In…

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Boris could once again suffer the curse of being the long term CON leadership favourite

Boris could once again suffer the curse of being the long term CON leadership favourite

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Chart betdata.io How the betting moved ahead of the 2016 race We all know the truism from Conservative leadership contests that the person who most likely seems to be the successor never gets it. Michael Heseltine, Michael Portillo and David Davis would no doubt attest to the difficulty of being the long-term favourite I love looking at historical betting charts showing how punters were observing and risking their money on a big political outcome in the past where we have…

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With the first LE2018 postal votes being cast the signs are not good for the Tories

With the first LE2018 postal votes being cast the signs are not good for the Tories

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The first of next month’s two electoral challenges for the Tories While everybody seems to be getting excited about the May 23rd Euro elections there has been little focus on the big hurdle that the Tories have to surmount three weeks before that. These are the local elections in England which cover almost all of the country excluding London and just one or two counties. Each year during a four years cycle a different set of local elections takes place…

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Brexit is Ulsterising British politics

Brexit is Ulsterising British politics

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One issue has become so important as to define the entire system Most people would regard the Good Friday Agreement as a Very Good Thing. Certainly, it was so at the time and 21 years later, that broadly remains so. Despite the continuing background presence of dissident political violence – sadly this week coming into the foreground – the Agreement brought peace and an agreed political structure to the province. As with much else in Irish politics, the GFA has…

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UK Euro elections have been no guide to what will happen at the next general election

UK Euro elections have been no guide to what will happen at the next general election

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Even under Blair LAB never “won” a Euro election While everybody is getting over excited at the moment about the prospect of the May 23rd Euro elections we should remind ourselves and how they have been totally non indicative of what’s going to happen at the following general election Back in 1999, the first General Election after Tony Blair’s landslide, William Hague’s Tories came out as the top party with 33.5% of the vote 7 points ahead of Labour. Two…

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The extent to which the Euro elections can be treated as a referendum depends on whether the outcome supports your side

The extent to which the Euro elections can be treated as a referendum depends on whether the outcome supports your side

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Get ready on the evening of Sunday May 26th, when the euro elections results are announced, for the production of aggregates of the votes of the pro brexit and pro remain parties and and whoever has “won” trying argue that this is a mini referendum. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if one or more of the TV results programmes creates live graphics so we can see how it is going as the numbers come in. Clearly this is a…

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Plunging opinion polls are not the Conservatives’ biggest problem

Plunging opinion polls are not the Conservatives’ biggest problem

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Memo to Conservative Party: Since March 29th you've averaged just 32.6%This is Michael Howard 2005 territoryYou've lost 9 pts in a yearYou're losing Leavers; support down 12 points in 5 monthsUKIP+Brexit Party have doubled in 3 months to 11% These numbers = PM Jeremy Corbyn — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) April 15, 2019 Alice was introduced to the concept of an unbirthday party at the Mad Hatter’s Tea Party. By close analogy, let me introduce you to the concept of an…

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