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On what’s currently the biggest UK political betting market punters make it a 35% chance that there’ll be an no deal Brexit this year

On what’s currently the biggest UK political betting market punters make it a 35% chance that there’ll be an no deal Brexit this year

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair price movements The above market was put up a few weeks ago by Betfair and has yet to be discussed on PB. In terms of the level of betting it is by far the current biggest market and one where it is quite hard to judge. On the face of it the Johnson regime appears determined to leave by October 31st and it is hard to square his position with what is a big red line…

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Three paths to instability

Three paths to instability

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We now have the archetypal scenario of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. Boris Johnson has now made so many “October 31 unless the backstop gets it” speeches that it’s time to believe him: if he rowed back from it now, Farage would eat him alive, and the ERG would consume the remains. The EU has said so often that they will not alter, let alone remove, the backstop that it is inconceivable that they will even contemplate it. …

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Jo Swinson wins the LD leadership contest

Jo Swinson wins the LD leadership contest

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She takes over with the party on the up It has just been announced that 39 year old Jo Swinson has won the Lib Dem leadership race with 62% of the vote against her former ministerial colleague in the coalition, Ed Davey. She’s the first woman to lead the party and was first elected as an MP at GE2005. She lost her seat, East Dunbartonshire, at GE2015 only to win it back two years later. Her leadership starts at a…

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The prorogue debate is a red herring: the question is No Deal or No Confidence

The prorogue debate is a red herring: the question is No Deal or No Confidence

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Parliament won’t be able to repeat Cooper I: only nuclear options remain Rarely can there have been such a disparity between the apparent dullness of the procedural minutiae of an amendment to a technical Bill about Northern Ireland, and the breathless attention paid it by the political commentariat as there was this week. Wrongly. They might as well not have bothered. In trying to find processes to avoid the government proroguing parliament in late October (processes which might not work…

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13 days to go until the Brecon and Radnorshire by election and the Tories accuse their opponents of vandalism

13 days to go until the Brecon and Radnorshire by election and the Tories accuse their opponents of vandalism

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Tories complaining in Brecon & Radnor by-election that their posters are getting vandalised https://t.co/oDswR6rgOH pic.twitter.com/hztA92wyTK — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 19, 2019 The Brecon and Radnor Times   is reporting that the local Tories are complaining that their poster boards for the August 1st by-election are being vandalised by their opponents. See the Tweet above for an example. The by-election,  the first in a CON held seat this parliament,  had been triggered by the successful recall petition against the incumbent Tory…

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BoJo’s assertions on leaving by October 31st fail to convince Brexit date punters

BoJo’s assertions on leaving by October 31st fail to convince Brexit date punters

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair Exchange On Betfair a 2019 exit is just a 39% chance We’ve seen in the latest defeat for the government in proroguing parliaments that the parliamentary situation is going to make it very tough for Johnson. There simply aren’t the MP numbers there and now rebellious remain ministers are acting in unison in the same manner as the ERG hardliners. The latest news that at least three cabinet ministers are ready to resign also adds to…

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Blow for BoJo as CON MPs and ministers rebel on a measure that impedes his ability to prorogue parliament

Blow for BoJo as CON MPs and ministers rebel on a measure that impedes his ability to prorogue parliament

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MPs vote to block the next UK PM shutting down Parliament in order to push through a no-deal #Brexit, by 315 votes to 274https://t.co/0puewBdfxO pic.twitter.com/AP6HJf6fO0 — BBC Politics (@BBCPolitics) July 18, 2019 https://twitter.com/tpgcolson/status/1151840143889711105 pic.twitter.com/vDU9MSngqB — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) July 18, 2019 So the incoming PM’s wings are clipped before he starts Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

2020 now edging toward the favourite slot in Next General Election year betting

2020 now edging toward the favourite slot in Next General Election year betting

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair Exchange With Boris due to become Prime Minister in just 6 days time there’ve been sharp changes on the Betfair year of the next general election market. As can be seen from the chart 2019 is slipping downwards and the money is now going towards 2020. A lot of this, I would suggest, is down to a growing realisation that the Fixed-Term Parliament Act makes it quite hard for the new leader to call an election…

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