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Category: BREXIT

The pact that will make the Commons seat predictors a lot less useful next time

The pact that will make the Commons seat predictors a lot less useful next time

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Heidi’s pro-Remain electoral deal could impact on 70+ seats A story that’s got hidden in all the Brexit news was this on SkyNews about Heidi Allen, the South Cambridgeshire ex-CON MP who this week joined the LDs. She told the news channel that Remain-backing parties, the LDs, GRN and PC, have come to an agreement whereby only one of them will compete in 70+ key seats in England and Wales. Also agreed is that these parties will not put up…

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The polling trend that suggests a Cummings “People v Parliament” battle over Brexit might struggle

The polling trend that suggests a Cummings “People v Parliament” battle over Brexit might struggle

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The Evening Standard is carrying an analysis this afternoon of how opinion over Brexit has moved since the referendum in 2016. It is based on 300 polls and responses to its “Brexit right or wrong” and how respondents would now vote. What helps this analysis is that it is based on so many polls and does show a smallish but significant shift. The report points out that since GE2017 in J 204 out of 226 poll have Remain ahead, with…

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It’s looking like a no-deal brexit or else an Article 50 extension

It’s looking like a no-deal brexit or else an Article 50 extension

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If the front pages have this right then the chances of Johnson getting his deal through look very thin indeed and so the only options remaining are a no-deal Brexit or else it’s an Article 50 extension. The latter,  of course, would breach the the deadlines that Johnson set for himself on taking over at Number 10 and the consequences of such a move are very hard to fathom. The big plan, I guess, is for there to be an…

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Betting opens on Beaconsfield which almost certainly will be one of the top constituency markets at the general election

Betting opens on Beaconsfield which almost certainly will be one of the top constituency markets at the general election

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Ladbrokes make it CON 5/6: Grieve 5/6 The news at the weekend that the Liberal Democrats have decided to stand aside in the Beaconsfield constituency at the general election in order to give the incumbent MP, Dominic Grieve, a clear run has inevitably set off a betting market which looks likely to be a big one. Grieve, the former Attorney-General, has played a big part in opposing Johnson’s plans for Brexit for which he was booted out of the Conservative…

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My 500/1 tip might just turn out be a winner

My 500/1 tip might just turn out be a winner

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The Commons Speaker has emerged as the new favourite in the race to take over from Boris Johnson if there is a vote of no confidence https://t.co/GmJh5ergIV — Times Politics (@timespolitics) October 6, 2019 This morning’s Sunday Times is reporting John Bercow has been proposed for the role of Britain’s caretaker prime minister, as opposition parties plot to sidestep Jeremy Corbyn and form a “government of national unity” composed entirely of prominent backbenchers. The Commons Speaker has emerged as the new…

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The front pages after Johnson’s big conference speech

The front pages after Johnson’s big conference speech

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Surprisingly the two biggest circulation and arguably most influential politically papers, the Mail and the Sun, do not make in their lead. The former ignores it completely on its front page. Quite what we can read into that I don’t know. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

On the day of Johnson’s Brexit plan the latest polling on how voters view the referendum decision

On the day of Johnson’s Brexit plan the latest polling on how voters view the referendum decision

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The 9% Brexit wrong gap is one of the biggest seen since 2016 This is YouGov’s tracker which has been asked least twice a month since the referendum in June 2016. The format of the question has been unchanged and in the early day just about all the findings had Brexit being “right”. That changed in late 2017/q18 and so far this year Brexit “right” has trailed. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet