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What is your assessment of the chances of the next general election being fought on the new boundaries? A 0-20% chance 21-40% 41-60% 61-80% 81-100%      Will the blues get their 20 seat bonus? There’s one issue that’s going to dominate politics over the next year or so following last week’s Tory backbench rebellion on the government’s Lords reform plan. By October 2013 the planned boundary changes for the 2015 general election will have been finalised and it will…

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Where will things stand after tonight? The time-table motion on the Lords reform bill is taking on a significance way beyond the procedural measures for the passage of the bill for which it is ostensibly about. Without that in place the measure, backed I’m told by 17 Tory cabinet ministers, will have real trouble progressing through the commons and the chances of it being enacted will look even slimmer. The bigger question will be what it does to the coalition….

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The boundary changes could be postponed in exchange for the LDs holding back on Lord reform. Winner=Ed Miliband bit.ly/IS9SWc — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 8, 2012 A delay Lords reform/boundary changes pact means that LAB can win overall majority with just 3% lead. CON needs 11% lead. — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 8, 2012 A delay Lords reform/boundary changes pact means that Nadine’s seat is safe for next time. — Mike Smithson (@MikeSmithsonOGH) May 8, 2012 See Gary Gibbon’s post…

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Election outcome < New boundaries Old boundaries LAB MAJORITY LAB LEAD 4.3% LAB LEAD 3% LAB MOST SEATS CON LEAD below 2.2% CON LEAD below 4% CON MOST SEATS CON LEAD above 2.2% CON LEAD 4% CON MAJORITY CON LEAD above 7.4% CON LEAD 11% The LDs are MORE likely to vote for the boundary changes One massive issue festering in the background at Westminster is the change to the boundaries which according to the projections from YouGov’s Anthony Wells...

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