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Category: Boundary Reviews

Why the boundary changes probably matter less than you think

Why the boundary changes probably matter less than you think

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Sisyphus was happy, reckoned Albert Camus.  The Boundary Commissioners may have their own view on this: for the third time they are being asked to come up with new proposals.  Their proposals for 2012 and 2018 both came to nothing.  They are now beavering away on their proposals for 2024. Boundary reviews get wonks very excited.  By and large, they should simmer down.  They’re not half as important as is assumed, particularly for Labour and the Conservatives.  Here’s why. Notional…

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BONUS PB/Polling Matters podcast: What do the boundary commission proposals mean?

BONUS PB/Polling Matters podcast: What do the boundary commission proposals mean?

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On a bonus episode of the Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Professor Ron Johnston from the University of Bristol to discuss the Boundary Commission’s proposals this week for reforming parliamentary constituencies in Westminster. Ron explains how it’s all done, the potential implications if the current proposals are adopted and what happens next. Follow @KeiranPedley Tweet

The planned new boundaries give CON 40 more seats than LAB for the same national vote shares

The planned new boundaries give CON 40 more seats than LAB for the same national vote shares

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GB vote split C38/L38/LD10 on new boundaries: CON 40 seats ahead This makes Corbyn’s task much harder One of the big political developments that could have a huge impact on the outcome of the next general election will come in the next two or three months when the final report of the Boundaries Commission comes out. Under what was agreed by Parliament seven years ago the number of MPs will be reduced from 650 to 600 and each constituency will…

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UK Special Elections Super Thursday 1 : February 15th 2018

UK Special Elections Super Thursday 1 : February 15th 2018

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Higham Ferrers on Northamptonshire (Con defence) Result: Con 1,414 (57% -3% on last time), Lab 557 (22% +3% on last time), Lib Dem 336 (13% +2% on last time), UKIP 109 (4% -6% on last time), Green 81 (3%, no candidate last time) Conservative HOLD with a majority of 857 (35%) on a swing of 3% from Con to Lab Higham Ferrers, Lancaster on East Northamptonshire (Con defence) Result: Con 611 (56%), Lib Dem 244 (22%), Lab 189 (17%), Green…

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What the proposed new boundaries would mean if Britain voted as in latest ICM poll

What the proposed new boundaries would mean if Britain voted as in latest ICM poll

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The Electoral Calculus projection based on proposed boundaries And the Electoral Calculus projection on current boundaries Over the next couple of years the boundaries review is going to become a major issue. The final proposals are almost there and to show the effect of them I have taken a projection, based on yesterday’s ICM poll, from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus based on the old boundaries and compared them with the new. As can be seen the Conservatives do better with…

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Tories are aping DTrump when they claim the electoral system’s rigged against them

Tories are aping DTrump when they claim the electoral system’s rigged against them

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It is bollocks for minsters to suggest that electoral system favours LAB. Now CON main beneficiary .GE17CON win 48.9% of MPs with 42.4% voteLAB win 40.3% of MPs with 40% of voteLDs 1.8% of MPs with 7.4% of votehttps://t.co/AaCXsFOWOx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 29, 2017 The headline on the Telelgraph's Trump-like Labour's trying to rig election front page lead pic.twitter.com/zJPoPDiSDW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 29, 2017 The Telegraph’s making a fool of itself I know it is the…

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DUP lose 3 seats in new boundary proposals to put it behind SF

DUP lose 3 seats in new boundary proposals to put it behind SF

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This isn’t going to be popular with TMay’s supply & confidence partners Well done to Martin Baxter for getting his boundaries projection out so fast. His figures showing what would happen if they’d been in force on June 8th have the Tories just into majority territory but with the DUP suffering in Northern Ireland. It is for this reason perhaps more than any why this plan is unlikely to happen. But the law reducing the size of the Commons from…

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To add to the febrile political mix – next week’s boundary changes cutting 50 MPs

To add to the febrile political mix – next week’s boundary changes cutting 50 MPs

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One thing I think is for sure – there’ll be no move to remove the diminished TMay next week. MPs will be mostly focused on the position their own seats and the impact of revised boundary plans. Although not implemented in 2015 the law reducing the size of the House of Commons from 650 to 600 MPs is still in force and the Boundary Commission has been going through the process of redrawing the boundaries with the aim of bringing…

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